Author Topic: coronavirus  (Read 672307 times)

ScottF

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3450 on: August 23, 2021, 11:41:30 AM »
"Our vaccines are working exceptionally well," Walensky told CNN's Wolf Blitzer. "They continue to work well for Delta, with regard to severe illness and death -- they prevent it. But what they can't do anymore is prevent transmission."

So the vaccine helps reduce symptoms but does not prevent transmission. Explain to me again how someone unvaccinated affects those who are vaccinated? I can only assume at this point it's simply "for their own good".

LetterRip

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3451 on: August 23, 2021, 12:17:16 PM »
"Our vaccines are working exceptionally well," Walensky told CNN's Wolf Blitzer. "They continue to work well for Delta, with regard to severe illness and death -- they prevent it. But what they can't do anymore is prevent transmission."

So the vaccine helps reduce symptoms but does not prevent transmission. Explain to me again how someone unvaccinated affects those who are vaccinated? I can only assume at this point it's simply "for their own good".

He stated things poorly, while they don't 100% prevent transmission, they drastically reduce transmission. 
An unvaccinated person is contagious for 15 days; a vaccinated person for 5 days if they have a breakthrough infection.  So 1/3 the amount of time contagious if they are infected sufficiently to get a breakthrough infection.  Vaccinated people are only contagious with a breakthrough infection - odds of a breakthrough are 10% or so.  So 90% of the time the person doesn't become infected enough to become contagious.

The net effect is approximately 1/10*1/3 = 1/30th as likely to spread Covid-19 as an unvaccinated individual.

Also risk of breakthrough infections are age dependent and health dependent - the most likely to have breakthroughs are those most vulnerable to COVID-19 (60+, preexisting conditions).  Younger healthier people are much less likely to have a breakthrough and thus there is a greater protective effect to having them vaccinated.
« Last Edit: August 23, 2021, 12:24:32 PM by LetterRip »

Wayward Son

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3452 on: August 23, 2021, 12:40:20 PM »
An example of someone who knew, and told everyone, that it wouldn't affect him.

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Phil Valentine, a conservative radio talk show host who was a vaccine skeptic and disagreed with mask mandates up until he was diagnosed with COVID-19 last month, has died at age 61.


"We are saddened to report that our host and friend Phil Valentine has passed away," his station, SuperTalk 99.7 WTN, tweeted Saturday afternoon. "Please keep the Valentine family in your thoughts and prayers."

Valentine, whose show first went on-air in Nashville, Tennessee, in 1995 and was eventually syndicated to several cities across the country, confirmed he was diagnosed with the coronavirus in a Facebook post on July 11, CBS affiliate WTVF-TV reports.

"Yes, the rumors are true," he wrote on Facebook. "I have COVID. Unfortunately for the haters out there, it looks like I'm going to make it."

He called the illness an "interesting experience" and said he would fill listeners in when he was back on the air. "I'm hoping that will be tomorrow, but I may take a day off just as a precaution. It'll be a game time decision," he wrote.

A few weeks later, the radio station shared an update on their Facebook page from Valentine's family, who said his condition had worsened.

"Phil contracted the Covid virus a little over a week ago & has since been hospitalized & is in very serious condition, suffering from Covid Pneumonia and the attendant side effects," the post said. "He is in the hospital in the critical care unit breathing with assistance but is NOT on a ventilator. We'd ask that everyone please refrain from contacting him while he is in the hospital."

In December of 2020 he tweeted "I have a very low risk of A) Getting COVID and B) dying of it if I do. Why would I risk getting a heart attack or paralysis by getting the vaccine?"

He also recorded a parody song titled "Vaxman," which mocked the vaccine, according to WTVF.

Prior to his hospitalization, Valentine said on the radio that he was "taking vitamin D like crazy" and that a doctor agreed to prescribe him an anti-parasite drug called ivermectin, according to the Associated Press. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has said not to take the medication to treat or prevent COVID-19.

"Ivermectin is often used in the U.S. to treat or prevent parasites in animals." ...

His family is now entreating people to get the vaccine. :(

ScottF

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3453 on: August 23, 2021, 01:10:28 PM »
Looks like he had every opportunity to get vaccinated, chose not to, and was one of the rare people to actually die from it. Sad, but doesn't make the case for mandatory vaccinations any more compelling.

I should add, it does make the case that nobody should be telling anyone to not to get vaccinated either. Do your research, choose.

msquared

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3454 on: August 24, 2021, 07:55:34 AM »
All it took was one pro vaccine comment from Trump for his buddy Alex Jones to turn on him.

https://currently.att.yahoo.com/att/alex-jones-flips-trump-decides-025141905.html?.tsrc=daily_mail&uh_test=1_11

I wonder when we will hear Brian Killmede and Sean Hannity and the other Fox News and OAN people start turning on Trump?  Will he have the guts to stand up to them?  Of course not.  He knows where his money is at.

Grant

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3455 on: August 24, 2021, 09:09:26 AM »
All it took was one pro vaccine comment from Trump for his buddy Alex Jones to turn on him.

Trumpism is finally growing beyond Trump. 

This is a good thing, and it was something that I felt was eventually bound to happen as time went on and L'Orange's power diminished.  It's good to see it happen.  Trumpism was always more powerful with a super celebrity in the Presidency.  The BS surrounding the election is catching up with Cheetoh Jeezus and he's losing the fringe.  I expect the sycophants to hang on like dingeberries but eventually they will be stuck out in the cold as well. 

TheDrake

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3456 on: August 24, 2021, 03:21:13 PM »
Good idea from the onion.

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ATLANTA—Urging the nation to protect themselves from the worst, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued a warning Monday that going unvaccinated is not worth the risk of losing the ability to taste wings. “We are pleading with Americans who are yet vaccinated against Covid-19 to realize they are in severe danger of losing and never fully recovering the ability to appreciate a big plate of wings,” said CDC director Rochelle Walensky, who implored vaccine holdouts not to wait any longer, lest they lose the ability to taste and smell succulent and crispy wings forever. “Buffalo, barbecue, lemon pepper, garlic Parmesan, mango habanero—these are the precious and tangy flavors at risk. And this isn’t just about your ability to fully smell and taste wings, either. Together, we must safeguard our family’s ability to taste wings, our friends’ ability to taste wings, and our neighbors’ ability to taste wings as well.” At press time, nationwide vaccination rates had surged to 95%.

cherrypoptart

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3457 on: August 24, 2021, 04:03:49 PM »
And yet... Israel is one of the most vaccinated countries on Earth but still they're experiencing a massive covid surge. And why is that? The same reason we are. They thought that if enough people got vaccinated then they didn't need universal masking anymore. Big mistake. And we went right over that same cliff with them.

Israel is proving the folly of the course we seem intent on even though we see it doesn't work. Vaccines are no substitute for masks. Without both the virus wins. That's just so patently obvious and still our government won't do the right thing.

rightleft22

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3458 on: August 24, 2021, 05:31:56 PM »
I was watching a episode of Bill Maher Real time
He was on pet peeve about wanting the Government to address the publics health issue of obesity as it a contributing factor of those who will be hospitalized with corvid.

Those on the panel agreed with him that it was a issue but not one any Dem or Rep administration  would spend any political capital on as you can imagine the stink between body shaming and 'freedom'
Their are somethings we should chose to do and address as a society but in today climate we just wont'

We can scream about the right thing to do, have most people agree, but as a society were not going to do it. I suspect Bill Maher knows he is pissing in the wind and I wonder if thier comes a time when he/we should just stop bringing the matter up.

When do we say this is how it is going to be and move on.

alai

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3459 on: August 24, 2021, 07:11:36 PM »
obesity as it a contributing factor of those who will be hospitalized with corvid.
Certainly is.  There's good eatin' in larger folks, and corvids ain't stoopid.  But please note that most crow-pecks are minor and don't require hospitalisation.  Your Raven May Vary.  And if you were already dead when they found you, they have dibs on everything.

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When do we say this is how it is going to be and move on.
As I understand it, the US does have policies on obesity.  Not apparently super-effective ones, but there you go.  So the question is surely, which "this" is "this"?

alai

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3460 on: August 24, 2021, 07:30:10 PM »
The net effect is approximately 1/10*1/3 = 1/30th as likely to spread Covid-19 as an unvaccinated individual.
This'd be great, as it'd (if my back of an envelop maths is in the right ballpark) it'd mean that you'd 97% effectiveness against retransmission, which in turn would mean you'd have population immunity at something like 86% vaccination rates.  Or actually less, as you also have acquired immunity from exposure and infection, and some unknown level of spontaneous immunity.  Even without masks or social distancing, and even against the delta variant.  (OTOH, there's a whole lot more of the Greek alphabet available, and traditionally after that we just knock right on through to the Hebrew one, and so on.)

But the estimates I've seen -- or even very cautious hedges around estimates -- have been much less favourable.  More in the ballpark of 50-70%, meaning that population immunity isn't even possible, without additional measures (whether pharma or non-).  If you have decent sources for this this, could you share please?  Stipulating that the data may be highly patchy or preliminary either way.

TheDrake

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3461 on: August 24, 2021, 07:35:22 PM »
And yet... Israel is one of the most vaccinated countries on Earth but still they're experiencing a massive covid surge. And why is that? The same reason we are. They thought that if enough people got vaccinated then they didn't need universal masking anymore. Big mistake. And we went right over that same cliff with them.

Israel is proving the folly of the course we seem intent on even though we see it doesn't work. Vaccines are no substitute for masks. Without both the virus wins. That's just so patently obvious and still our government won't do the right thing.

Define one of the most. They are barely more than the US at 68% versus our 60%. That's not so hot. You're implying that somehow this disease is ripping through Israel because of transmission from vaccinated to vaccinated, which is simply not the case. Your rant is a little untimely, since Israel restored their indoor mask mandate two months ago after just 10 days of removal. Do you research anything before you start beating your worn out drum?


https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/israel-s-20-unvaccinated-now-account-for-half-of-all-serious-covid-19-cases-1.10146662
https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210627/israel-indoor-face-masks-back-as-delta-variant-rises
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-57594155

alai

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3462 on: August 24, 2021, 07:38:54 PM »
Hard to know with absolute certainty. We know the doc was positive, the family seems to know that he was unvaccinated, and he definitely didn't take a test. Nobody else in contact with the infant is positive from what I understand, and the baby has never been out of the hospital since being born.
I am not a lawyer, nor even an American, so the last thing anyone should do is to take this as US legal advice.  But note that 'absolute certainty' is not a legal threshold of proof, and for civil liability, the usual standard is 'balance of probabilities' (AKA preponderance of evidence).

cherrypoptart

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3463 on: August 24, 2021, 08:13:19 PM »
>TheDrake

"Do you research anything before you start beating your worn out drum?"

The one thing we know with absolute certainty is that the virus spreads less with masks than without them.

That's a fact.

Unless our government and the governments of every major country in the world along with the vast majority of Hollywood actors and essentially everybody besides conservative pundits have been lying to us all this time, masks reduce the spread of the virus. That's been known for over a hundred years at least since the last pandemic.

So how does it make any sense at all not to use them?

You seem to be implying that dropping mask usage doesn't make much of a difference.

"Your rant is a little untimely, since Israel restored their indoor mask mandate two months ago after just 10 days of removal."

That proves the point more than disproves it. That shows how much damage 10 days of mask removal can do. And we've been on the so called honor system how long? It's no wonder we're backsliding so much on the progress we'd been making. Sure, maybe delta. But even so delta just means it makes even less sense than ever for anyone to be going maskless indoors in crowds. And yet our government is still totally AWOL unless they are purposefully using the surge in sickness and death to inspire vaccinations. Which takes us back full circle to Israel. It wouldn't matter if we had 100% vaccinations for 12 and older if we kept seeing delta's rate of infection and breakthrough illness as well as transmission and increasing hospitalization rate in people under 12 who cannot yet be vaccinated, it would still be the smarter play to go for masks. And Biden is also dropping the ball on testing.

The results speak for themselves. Less testing. Less masking. Sole focus on vaccines. Big mistake.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/bidens-covid-19-strategy-thwarted-by-anti-vaxxers-delta-variant-2021-07-29/

"But the focus on vaccines accompanied a decline in COVID-19 testing, mixed messages on masking, and a failure to anticipate potent anti-vaccination sentiment, misinformation and the virus' own ability to mutate rapidly into more formidable variants, some critics said.

"To protect the country from COVID, you need to have multiple strategies," said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease specialist and professor at the University of California, San Francisco. "We jumped on the vaccine bandwagon and excitement at the expense of other core strategies in the pandemic."

And downplaying Israel's vaccination rate when they according to this story one of the most highly vaccinated countries in the world?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2021/08/11/israels-recent-surge-confirms-we-need-a-multimodal-strategy-to-fight-covid-19/?sh=1cd4037c5b6e

"Cases are occurring in both vaccinated and unvaccinated populations, yet with one of the highest vaccination rates in the world, Israel’s experience confirms that no single modality will control Covid-19 alone, as the virus continues to evolve and mutate. We need a multi-modal strategy to contain Covid-19."

alai

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3464 on: August 24, 2021, 08:28:09 PM »
You misunderstand, preventing mutations is only possible with vaccination - if we get the Ro close to 1 with vaccination then masking might help push it over the edge.  Masking only somewhat delays variants - as long as you are unvaccinated you are essentially guaranteed to catch the delta variant of COVID-19 given how easily it spread.  For a virus with a low Ro you could eliminate variants by simply hygiene and personal protective equipment measures, but with this high an Ro it slows it but is unlikely to stop it.
I think you have to look at vaccinations and all non-pharma interventions together in the round.  WT and to some extent alpha were more-or-less stabilised with public health measures alone -- albeit some pretty drastic ones.  And they're already more infectious than cold (OK, huge generalisation as that's a gajillion -- trust me, I'm a scientist! -- different strains, species, genera, and even entire virus families) and influenza.  Trouble being beta and delta are yet-moreso, meaning that neither is able to do it itself, at least in the first instance.

Of course, the contrary factor is...  contrary people.  Or to put that more generously, people 'burnt out' by restrictions, those disproportionately psychologically or financially affected by it, countervailing economic and health effects generally, and so on.  In theory you could get from R=3 to R<1 by such means, but in practice I think not.  After all, we already have people saying that 4.4m deaths are "rare" events (or 630k in the US alone, given the forum that's in it).  That narrative inevitably gets stronger when it becomes slightly less at variance from reality.

TheDrake

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3465 on: August 24, 2021, 09:23:35 PM »
You misunderstand me. I'm all for mask mandates. I'd like abbot to put one in place statewide in Texas. I'd like every school district to have one without interference. If it were legal, I'd be all for a federal one with significant fines. That doesn't mean that vaccines should be downplayed, which seems to be your tone. You say we need both, but you only ever seem to be touting one, but only with a focus on the federal guidelines, which is just weird.

alai

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3466 on: August 24, 2021, 09:57:39 PM »
You misunderstand me. I'm all for mask mandates. I'd like abbot to put one in place statewide in Texas. I'd like every school district to have one without interference. If it were legal, I'd be all for a federal one with significant fines. That doesn't mean that vaccines should be downplayed, which seems to be your tone. You say we need both, but you only ever seem to be touting one, but only with a focus on the federal guidelines, which is just weird.
Assuming you're addressing CPT here, my take is not so much as they're downplaying the role of the vaccine, as very keen on addressing the question of "what's been done wrong here?" and "why is your answer 'it's Biden's fault'?"

alai

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3467 on: August 25, 2021, 12:38:22 AM »
But yeah, let's worry about the theoretical effects of having them wear masks in school.
That's unfair.  To theories.  This isn't a "theoretical effect", it's a glib talking point.  It has much the same basis in scientific theory as the one that masks stop this big fat 3-angstrom oxygen molecules from passing, but are utterly ineffective against those sly, elusive 5-micron covid droplets.

alai

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3468 on: August 25, 2021, 01:06:48 AM »
Thanks for the answers, LR, but just as a small clarification, I was more asking what do you suggest society do about these types of venues, rather than what would be your personal strategy (i.e. for working out). For example, having a choir in temple masked is essentially silly, since the actual necessary element in the choir sound is...the sound. And especially its integrity and tone if the choir is any good. Muffle that and you may as well eliminate the choir (to say nothing of how insane it is to sing in a mask, which I can attest to). It's highly demoralizing to try to engage in such activities masked, so IMO a solution is needed that goes beyond the short-term warzone "we can tough it out" mentality. A real medium or long-term solution needs to be found that does not involve masks. Aside from the fact that it's non-functional in many cases, I don't think people will put up with it for long no matter what the CDC advocates for.
If it were just a matter of sound, a PA system would be the perfect solution.  People will argue it's also about the communal experience -- and hence will give out yards (no pun intended) about physical distancing, the logical alternative.  But if people are in a space that's too small for a safe amount of separation, fancy technical fixes are on the case too...  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9G1GGBKi9aE

alai

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3469 on: August 25, 2021, 01:58:07 AM »
If you look at the graph of cases from last July, there is a peak then as well - .  It is a combination of hot weather driving people indoors and 4th of July celebrations.  This year though we also have Delta.
Infamously the Florida governor's office tried "we always told you it was a seasonal virus" as a talking point.  So evidently they're giving themselves four passes per year for spikes, not just one...

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That is the power of exponential growth - Delta is to the 10th power,  Alpha was to 4th power, original was to the 2nd power.
That's powers of ten (taking your estimate of R_0 as a given), rather than to the tenth power.

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With delta within a few seconds of hanging around someone you can likely catch it.  (There is video footage of someone who the only contact they had was walking by another individual)
With alpha you have to typically hang around a person for 10-15 minutes.
That's likely an extreme case, rather than typical of the difference between the two.  Depending what risk you intend by "can likely" -- probabilistic hedges and national varieties of English again!

alai

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3470 on: August 25, 2021, 02:51:08 AM »
Im not anti-vaxx.  I'm against this one being forced into me when I'm young and healthy and already had the Covid.  I don't want it, I don't need it, it creates a risk for my health and provides me with zero.
*these ones.  There's quite a suite of them by now.

"I'm not anti-vax, I'm just anti-whatever-vax-we're-actually-talking-about, which I'll now make a series of false and misleading statements regarding." -- every conservation with an anti-vaxer, ever.

Anything being "forced into you" is an obvious straw man.  And your assessments of the risks and the benefits are pretty clearly wildly at variance with the scientific evidence.

If it's any comfort though, here in Evil Communistic Menace Europe, the "vaccine passport" model we have does allow for recovery for infection, and also for testing.  And again doesn't "force" anything to anyone, just determines whether people are in the public-health slow lane or not.

cherrypoptart

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3471 on: August 25, 2021, 06:55:49 AM »
TheDrake

"You misunderstand me. I'm all for mask mandates... You say we need both, but you only ever seem to be touting one..."

Well I'm certain we're on the same page then. We're already doing everything we reasonably can on the vaccination front. I don't see how much more we can do there. So my beef is that we're not doing the same with masks.

And it's nothing new either. We were doing better with the former CDC mask policy than we are now despite more people now being vaccinated. I'm not asking for anything new or crazy, just that we go back to the mask policy that was working. Every day we delay admitting that was a huge mistake gets more people unnecessarily infected. It only took Israel 10 days to see the error of their ways. Why is it taking us so long?


cherrypoptart

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3472 on: August 25, 2021, 07:16:36 AM »
And story after story, the writing is on the wall.

https://news.yahoo.com/keep-guard-cdc-studies-show-004421531.html

“Although these interim findings suggest a moderate reduction in the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in preventing infection, the sustained two thirds reduction in infection risk underscores the continued importance and benefits of COVID-19 vaccination,” the CDC said.

Topol said the research underscores the need for vaccines for all, but also the need to protect vaccinated people. The delta wave will pass eventually, but even those who are fully vaccinated need to “keep your guard up,” he said.

“We’re not getting the word out enough that people who have been vaccinated are not protected as much as they think. They need to mask up, they need to do everything they can. Make believe that there wasn't a vaccine," he said."

--------------------------------------------------------------------

The CDC knows what to do. They're saying the right things. Now they just need to pull the trigger and say everyone needs to mask up like before.

Maybe why I'm bringing it up again is because I just went to Costco and the number of people there indoors in crowds maskless with no room for proper social distancing and spreading delta all over the place was just insane. It's infuriating. And if the CDC did what it should have done months ago it wouldn't be happening. This is going on all over the country and it's just senseless easily preventable violence.

As I look at each unmasked person whether they are vaccinated or not I can't help but think to myself, "Are you stupid? Are you stupid? And what about you over there? Are you stupid too?" And then I come on here to vent a little. But okay for the people doing that they are only following the CDC guidance, well at least the ones that are vaccinated. But that guidance is dead wrong.

My understanding is there are machines that can analyze how much Covid there is in the air. Why not use them at a Costco today and take some measurements. Then require masks for a few days and take another set of measurements. I remember one time in speech class the instructor asked a question about if you are trying to persuade people what are some of the ways to do that. Nobody raised their hand but a sudden insight hit me and I raised my hand and gave my answer: Facts. She said that was an excellent answer. The information is out there so why isn't our government reaching out to grab it and then make it public?

TheDrake

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3473 on: August 25, 2021, 11:15:05 AM »
There's definitely more we can do on both fronts. Biden is responding to republican governors pretty strongly. School districts that want mask mandates have been threatened with loss of state funds, biden is firing back by threatening those governors with loss of federal education dollars.

The same technique could be used to condition federal dollars on mask policies and vaccination. Medicare and medicaid dollars are about to be preconditioned on staff vaccination mandates for nursing homes.

TheDrake

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3474 on: August 25, 2021, 11:32:19 AM »
Here's another thing private companies can do. Delta is going to have unvaccinated employees take weekly covid tests and pay up to $200/mo more for health insurance. It's hard to find but I believe they all have to wear masks as well. Including non customer facing.

NobleHunter

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3475 on: August 25, 2021, 11:38:27 AM »
I hope they're only charging people who choose not to be vaccinated.

TheDrake

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3476 on: August 25, 2021, 12:28:50 PM »
I hope they're only charging people who choose not to be vaccinated.

Correct.

TheDrake

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3477 on: August 25, 2021, 12:36:55 PM »
Meanwhile, Nebraska is openly recruiting unvaccinated nurses to come infect veterans at state run facilities. No clear idea of whether they are also recruiting the unmasked, but the folks in their ad aren't wearing them.

https://www.3newsnow.com/news/coronavirus/no-covid-shots-required-nebraska-ads-for-nurses-criticized

alai

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3478 on: August 25, 2021, 03:24:17 PM »
Meanwhile, Nebraska is openly recruiting unvaccinated nurses to come infect veterans at state run facilities. No clear idea of whether they are also recruiting the unmasked, but the folks in their ad aren't wearing them.

https://www.3newsnow.com/news/coronavirus/no-covid-shots-required-nebraska-ads-for-nurses-criticized
This'd be a great plan immunologically if we could separate out the "Two Cultures" with more-than-South-African rigour.  Have some hospitals 'culturing' the disease for those that want to "catch this cold" and get their natural, organic, wholesome antibodies, and the rest of us left to follow best medical practice and do it the other way.

Socially and politically, maybe not so great.

alai

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3479 on: August 25, 2021, 04:31:32 PM »
My understanding is there are machines that can analyze how much Covid there is in the air. Why not use them at a Costco today and take some measurements.
Costco won't do this as it'd be alienating the very segment of their customer base you're concerned about.  The government won't do this because of the huge squawk there'd be about pettyfogging totalitarian statist commissars swooping in at the behest of the evil globalist coastal elites and stealing MA FREEDUMS.  Antivaxers won't mask of their own volition due to economies of scale:  having rationalised to themselves once that covid is only any kind of danger to people older, sicker, or poorer than themselves -- and that they don't care about those, it goes without saying -- anti-masking drops out 'for free'.  And some vaccinated people will see going maskless as their 'reward' for getting jabbed, and are now (they equally incorrectly conclude) bulletproof, and have no responsibility to others.  So that makes for total no-go deadlock at the four-way stop(*), by my reckoning.

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Nobody raised their hand but a sudden insight hit me and I raised my hand and gave my answer: Facts. She said that was an excellent answer. The information is out there so why isn't our government reaching out to grab it and then make it public?
I admire your and your instructor's optimism, and only wish I shared it.  Neither government nor facts seems to be very popular with the US body politic at present (and not in the US only).

(*) Eurocyclist here, so apologies if my US motoring metaphors are botched.

alai

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3480 on: August 25, 2021, 04:43:00 PM »
Every day we delay admitting that was a huge mistake gets more people unnecessarily infected.
You say "unnecessarily", but the pathology of the virus is such that it seems highly likely the average person is either going to be vaccinated multiple times, infected multiple times, or dealer's-choice combo of the two.  And some people are utterly obstinate that they're not getting vaccinated.  So doing the maths on that...

TheDrake

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3481 on: August 25, 2021, 05:06:12 PM »
My company just officially pushed office return to November 1st.

cherrypoptart

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3482 on: August 25, 2021, 10:31:46 PM »
alai

"... it seems highly likely the average person is either going to be vaccinated multiple times, infected multiple times, or dealer's-choice combo of the two.  And some people are utterly obstinate that they're not getting vaccinated."

I agree about the average person but I know some people who are very afraid of the virus, also afraid of the vaccines, but not at all afraid of wearing masks. I wonder what the odds are that being very careful they'll be able to avoid infection for another year or more, or two or three years, or however long it takes for this storm to blow over. Or if it ever will. Eventually though after enough people get infected we may get over the rainbow to herd immunity or the virus will attenuate its severity enough that it's on par with the average cold.


alai

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3483 on: August 25, 2021, 11:47:12 PM »
I agree about the average person but I know some people who are very afraid of the virus, also afraid of the vaccines, but not at all afraid of wearing masks. I wonder what the odds are that being very careful they'll be able to avoid infection for another year or more, or two or three years, or however long it takes for this storm to blow over. Or if it ever will. Eventually though after enough people get infected we may get over the rainbow to herd immunity or the virus will attenuate its severity enough that it's on par with the average cold.
Excellent question, both in the "I have very little idea what the answer is" and "I'd very much like to" senses of the phrase.  And those two situations you describe latterly are very different as regards the prospects for those people.  Or perhaps three to be a little more precise:  we can post-pandemic by population immunity, but by my maths that really does require multiple immunisations, of either sort.  Two shots of the best-available vaccines in everyone -- much less in people it's approved for, never mind before we get to those that'd consent to this, at any speak -- aren't sufficient by themselves.  And "natural antibodies" (as opposed to what, the nanobot ones?  the metaphysical ones?) from a single bout of disease alone is likely somewhat worse.  Not that you'd think that from the 'had it so now I'm a ronatank' commentary here and elsewhere.  And admittedly the data on that seems to be limited, and likely is in any case more variable:  vaccines are carefully and calibrated tested doses, courses of the disease are not.  So perversely the "I had it bad and I changed my mind, jab me up now" people might need it less, and the 'it's nothing, and now it'll bounce off me' emboldened may need it more, were they only competent judges of their own best interests.  So we're waiting for some combo of boosters and 'let 'er rip, but hopefully not too fast' to get us there.

As for attenuation, there's two sub-cases.  There's the objective one, where the virus spontaneously undergoes "passage" and becomes significantly less harmful, even to a completely naive immune system.  That's possible, but I have no idea if it's at all likely.  Lots of variants so far (the Big Four are broad categories, and not exhaustive), and no huge reported changes in severity so far -- in either direction.  Of course, if you're an Evil Genius for a Better Tomorrow, you could always invent one!  Then you'd have something like the original vaccine -- Jenner's cowpox inoculation against smallpox.  (If you're a sufficiently deep conspiracy theorist, of course this has already happened:  the virus is a hoax nothingburger, but the vaccine is a live and infectious virus.  Fair is foul, and foul is fair!  Hover through the fog and filthy air.  [Exeunt all, on broomsticks.])

The other is subjective attenuation.  That's if population immunity creeps up in a layered manner, without ever getting to R_0 < 1 for any infection spread, but exposure means that the severity curve is more like that of a seasonal flu or even a cold.  From a public health point of view, good enough, situation over, resume your old normal.  But not great if you've been a one-person New Zealand, have avoided any exposure, and the disease is still circulating rather briskly.  You're still at the original degree of risk.  And if I were a betting man, I'd say this is the most likely outcome of the three.

On the plus side, people can get exposed, especially at low levels, without ever realizing it.  So hopefully the baseline creeps up for most people, even without them having any discrete immunisation 'events' they were aware of.  And hopefully also some of the 'vaccine hesitant' find various ladders to climb down.  One has been fully approved in the US, so that in theory gets rid of one objection.  Maybe another billion doses administered would be enough to dispose of 'experimental'.  If people are fixated on the mRNA ones (GMO humans!), there's already viral-vector vaccines, and there are protein subunit and whole-virus ones in Phase 3 Trial, maybe actually already approved in some places (certainly other viral-vectors ones are, but not in the USA).  Also non-injected vaccines, for that matter, specifically nasal ones.  Aside from the out-and-out needlephobic, I wonder if that's an easier sell for some of the Purity of our Vital Bodily Fluids crowd.  If you're going to be huffing either the virus or the vaccine by the same route eventually, why not opt for the nerfed version?  Won't shift the hardcore, but there's more rejoicing in heaven over the one sinner that repents, etc.

TheDrake

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3484 on: August 26, 2021, 10:06:38 AM »
How about a really sad reality show called Covid House where equal parts of infected, immunized, masked, and previously infected all live in a big house together.

Entertaining and educational.

alai

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3485 on: August 26, 2021, 12:41:43 PM »
Need to be a very big house to get a good sample size.

A very small house would work for lots of TV-grade yelling, though.

msquared

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3486 on: August 26, 2021, 01:31:53 PM »
Maybe another 100,000 dead by Dec 1.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/100-000-more-covid-deaths-161524707.html

And we were down to under 200 dead a day just 2 months ago.

alai

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3487 on: August 26, 2021, 02:52:04 PM »
"Won't happen, more covid alarmism, and when it does it'll be the corrupt medical professions juking the stats, and besides, it'll only be people older, sicker, and poorer than me.  Whose deaths were all faked thereby."

msquared

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3488 on: August 26, 2021, 02:56:37 PM »
I am wondering what they will say/do when the next variant kills young kids at a high rate but leaves older people unharmed.  Say 1 out of 10 kids who get it die and another 3 out of 10 have serious long term complications for the rest of their life.

alai

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3489 on: August 26, 2021, 03:11:18 PM »
Probably not a "next variant" thing.  It's all subtypes of the same strain of the SARS virus species, so it's unlikely that it jumps to become an entirely different pathology of infection.  (*)  Notaguarantee.

OTOH, could be a "next disease" entirely.  In which case, they'll just say what they already do for such things.  "Natural mild childhood disease.  Never was a big thing back in my day.  We just walked it off!  This vaccine though, which is a dangerously experimental technology in that it hasn't been tested for longer than <[today's date] minus [date testing began]>, it turns you into grey goo day after tomorrow, true story."

cherrypoptart

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3490 on: August 27, 2021, 10:27:17 AM »
Further evidence that Biden's dumb policy and misinformation about it being safe for vaccinated people to go maskless resulted in disaster: Hawaii.

They were doing great until Biden's puppet masters pulled his strings to play politics with a virus so they could take an early victory lap during an ongoing race. And Hawaii paid the price.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-hawaii-hitting-the-pause-button-on-travel-is-turning-heads-202929912.html

"The state only recorded about 50 cases a day in July, when the state opted to lift its requirement for U.S. travelers to show a negative test before traveling to the islands as long as they were vaccinated. But now, as the state averages more than 700 daily cases, Green explains federal travel guidelines are complicating a return to stricter controls at the state level.

"We now have to wrestle with the fact that the CDC and the FDA have given us formal recommendations that people can travel safely if they are fully vaccinated. That creates some legal challenges," he said. "I will say this, there is still a concern that people will catch and spread the Delta variant even if they are fully vaccinated."

-------------------------------------------------

So they had a system that was working great. Just test people before they came to Hawaii. But then team Biden's heavy hands massaged the CDC's shoulders and sniffed at their hair while whispering into their ear that it's safe for vaccinated people not to wear masks and oh yeah don't even worry about testing them either.

QFT: "... there is still a concern that people will catch and spread the Delta variant even if they are fully vaccinated." With my best Jack Reacher impression, "Ya think?"

All they had to do was keep testing people going to Hawaii. Seems like a no brainer. Like if they had a test for smallpox and our government said nah don't worry about it; it'll be fine.

And this is not even masks. This is tests. Who in the public was even complaining about tests. Where were the people saying heck no I'm not taking your stupid test? Nowhere. There was no good reason to get rid of testing for travelers to Hawaii like they did. Except the CDC said it was safe and vaccinated people were not a serious threat. Huge fumble.

And of course I don't have inside information on how exactly team Biden/CDC came up with their decision. It would be interesting to know though, to be in a fly on the wall during that back and forth to see where the idea started, if there was any resistance, get some idea of the ratio of politics to science that went into the process (which my calculations put at approximately 96.7% politics to 1% science with 2.3% dementia), and just understand the details of how that all went down. Of course we'll never know because our media has its own agenda and the truth isn't on it.

LetterRip

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3491 on: August 27, 2021, 11:17:37 AM »
cherry,

the information was accurate at the time when decision was made.  They had extensive evidence that people couldn't spread COVID-19.  They expected that the policy would act as an incentive for people to get vaccinated.  It wasn't a 'premature victory lap' - it was a reasoned policy decision.  Now there is new information - delta can spread even in vaccinated.  It is a shocking development, there isn't a precedent in the history of vaccination, so it is not a development they could or should have for-seen.

cherrypoptart

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3492 on: August 27, 2021, 12:03:30 PM »
So the second time when they said that you don't need to wear a mask if you are vaccinated was like the first time when they said nobody needs to be wearing masks to prevent the spread of Covid and it's all based on science and the best available knowledge at the time? Nothing to do with politics or an agenda apart from the science like saving the masks for medical personnel or pushing the vaccines? The problem with that theory is that there is precedent for these people not listening to the science when it doesn't fit their needs.

I'll go on the record as saying that there has never been a time since the pandemic started when the "real" science said that not wearing masks was the better option for people and that goes for at the beginning when the N95s were needed for medical people but lower quality masks would have been a whole lot better than nothing for everyone else as well as for after people got vaccinated. The science never said that vaccinated people don't spread the delta variant very much. That was just a dangerous assumption that people made without science ever telling them that because they were in too much of a hurry to celebrate.

LetterRip

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3493 on: August 27, 2021, 12:33:10 PM »
So the second time when they said that you don't need to wear a mask if you are vaccinated was like the first time when they said nobody needs to be wearing masks to prevent the spread of Covid and it's all based on science and the best available knowledge at the time? Nothing to do with politics or an agenda apart from the science like saving the masks for medical personnel or pushing the vaccines? The problem with that theory is that there is precedent for these people not listening to the science when it doesn't fit their needs.

I know you have a hate on for Biden, and love Trump, so you somehow want to make the pandemic Biden's fault.  Reality is contrary.  Biden has always followed the science, Trump ignored the science.

There are legitimate criticism of Biden's administration regarding the pandemic - they should have realized that even though the science at the time supported those who were vaccinated didn't need to wear masks - that irresponsible individuals and local governments would use that for unvaccinated individuals to ignore wearing masks.  His administration underestimated how irresponsible certain segments of the population are.

 
Quote
I'll go on the record as saying that there has never been a time since the pandemic started when the "real" science said that not wearing masks was the better option for people and that goes for at the beginning when the N95s were needed for medical people but lower quality masks would have been a whole lot better than nothing for everyone else as well as for after people got vaccinated. The science never said that vaccinated people don't spread the delta variant very much. That was just a dangerous assumption that people made without science ever telling them that because they were in too much of a hurry to celebrate.

At the beginning of the pandemic social distancing was far more important than masking and there was evidence that people ignored social distancing if they used masks.  So the science supported a lack of masking due to psychological reasons.

The lack of masks for vaccinated was supported by an extensive body of evidence - it showed that COVID-19 wasn't spread by vaccinated individuals.  There wasn't evidence on Delta, but there was no reason at all to think that Delta was different.  It wasn't an assumption - it was based on the history of all vaccination - ie based on extensive data.  If Delta turns out to turn people into zombies - you can't say "well we have TV shows of people becoming zombies from viruses, therefore the Biden administration should have foreseen Delta turning people into zombies and planned for Delta turning people into zombies".  That isn't how science or policy making work.  The Biden administration planned and made policy based on the best available evidence - when new evidence came to light they changed policies to take into account he new evidence.

ScottF

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3494 on: August 27, 2021, 12:34:52 PM »

I'll go on the record as saying that there has never been a time since the pandemic started when the "real" science said that not wearing masks was the better option for people and that goes for at the beginning when the N95s were needed for medical people but lower quality masks would have been a whole lot better than nothing for everyone else as well as for after people got vaccinated.

The "real" in quotes says it all. There is no conclusive science or data that indicates mask mandates have had any significant effect on the spread of the virus. Notice I'm very careful and specific with my words here. Lots of studies showing masks can stop droplets, reduce viral load (but not by much unless N95), etc. but the only large real-world RCT paper I've ever seen on overall mask effectiveness showed zero net value.

yossarian22c

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3495 on: August 27, 2021, 12:39:44 PM »

I'll go on the record as saying that there has never been a time since the pandemic started when the "real" science said that not wearing masks was the better option for people and that goes for at the beginning when the N95s were needed for medical people but lower quality masks would have been a whole lot better than nothing for everyone else as well as for after people got vaccinated.

The "real" in quotes says it all. There is no conclusive science or data that indicates mask mandates have had any significant effect on the spread of the virus. Notice I'm very careful and specific with my words here. Lots of studies showing masks can stop droplets, reduce viral load (but not by much unless N95), etc. but the only large real-world RCT paper I've ever seen on overall mask effectiveness showed zero net value.

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Without interventions in place, the vast majority of susceptible students will become infected through the semester. Universal masking can reduce student infections by 26-78%, and biweekly testing along with masking reduces infections by another 50%. To prevent new infections in the community, limit school absences, and maintain in-person learning, interventions such as masking and testing must be implemented widely, especially among elementary school settings in which children are not yet eligible for the vaccine.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.10.21261726v1

Science that shows masking reduces spread in schools.

Fenring

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3496 on: August 27, 2021, 12:47:40 PM »
I expect that the effectiveness of masks will probably be linked to the details of the indoor space in which they're used. In a small office with a lot of foot traffic, or even a classroom with 30 students, the aerosolized particles can probably become dense enough to create a risk, such that reducing the absolute quantity of them with masks will make a difference. In a larger space such as a grocery store, cafeteria, or even larger office space, the density of particles may be dispersed enough that the air circulation can more or less keep the amount in the air in check. That would be my guess, anyhow, as I've not looked for data on this. But it could explain why certain amounts of mask use might not have much of an effect on the total infection numbers and deaths, which is not the same as saying masks are useless. In some more closed environments I think you'd be pretty crazy to want to be near unmasked, potentially infectious sick people, no matter the ailment.
« Last Edit: August 27, 2021, 12:50:17 PM by Fenring »

rightleft22

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3497 on: August 27, 2021, 01:32:27 PM »
Your in a room with 4 other people, one of the 4 has covid, who do you want to be wearing a mask?
- no one
- yourself
- the person that should have stayed home.

I want the person with covid to be wearing the mask. 
« Last Edit: August 27, 2021, 01:43:20 PM by rightleft22 »

TheDrake

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3498 on: August 27, 2021, 02:44:09 PM »
Meanwhile in mask news. One judge has ruled the DeSantis anti mask order to be unconstitutional. This seems far more impaction than non binding recommendations by cdc or the biden administration that DeSantis ignored in this case.

alai

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Re: coronavirus
« Reply #3499 on: August 27, 2021, 03:15:17 PM »
The "real" in quotes says it all. There is no conclusive science or data that indicates mask mandates have had any significant effect on the spread of the virus. Notice I'm very careful and specific with my words here. Lots of studies showing masks can stop droplets, reduce viral load (but not by much unless N95), etc. but the only large real-world RCT paper I've ever seen on overall mask effectiveness showed zero net value.
"Significant" here meaning "statistically significant", or "large enough for you to be impressed by"?

One indeed has to choose one's words carefully and specifically to avoid the large heffalump traps of lots of evidence on the effectiveness of masks, by declaring things like "RCT or it didn't happen", "not conclusive", etc.  If you were a lawyer getting paid no-win no-fee, and had the choice which to argue on the basis of the preponderance of the (non-cherrypicked) evidence, which case sounds like the better expected revenue line?

Which is the paper you're referring to?  And in the spirit of share-and-share alike, a little reading for you: https://www.pnas.org/content/118/4/e2014564118