Author Topic: covid-19 outside the US  (Read 7429 times)

TheDrake

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #50 on: April 16, 2020, 05:00:44 PM »
Meanwhile in South America...

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Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has fired Luiz Henrique Mandetta as minister of health, Mandetta said on Twitter Thursday afternoon.

But much of the country’s focus in recent days was on the widespread speculation that Bolsonaro was about to fire Mandetta, after the minister criticized the president on a popular news show for refusing to abide by the ministry’s social distancing guidelines.

In the Western Hemisphere, Brazil trails only the United States in confirmed cases of the virus. But Bolsonaro has repeatedly downplayed the severity of the outbreak — dismissing the virus as a “little flu,” shrugging off social distancing recommendations from the World Health Organization and sharing videos calling for an end to the country’s lockdown.

Bolsonaro largely ignored those calls. On a visit with Mandetta last weekend to a pop-up hospital outside Brasilia, he walked into a crowd, took off his mask, extended his hand for a supporter to kiss and autographed jerseys.

Mandetta clearly and consistently walked back Bolsonaro’s erroneous claims on covid-19 with science and data. When deaths began to soar, Bolsonaro said the virus appeared to be going away; Mandetta warned of “tough days” ahead. When Bolsonaro touted an unproven cure for the virus — “This medicine here, hydroxychloroquine, is working everywhere,” he claimed in a video on Facebook and Twitter — Mandetta said he would not endorse widespread use of the drug without a peer-reviewed study.

Bolsonaro’s approval ratings have fallen to a record low of 28 percent during the outbreak, according to an XP Investments poll published last week. Sixty-eight percent of those surveyed, in contrast, said Mandetta and his Health Ministry were doing a good or excellent job.

I implore everyone to avoid drawing comparisons to the US, though some are obvious. This thread has stayed remarkably clean of US politics.

LetterRip

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #51 on: April 16, 2020, 05:24:40 PM »
Yep the specificities I've seen for most of these antibody tests is in the 90-98% range.

For instance this lists sensitivities and specificities for a large variety of COVID-19 tests, here is one example,

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. The sensitivity is 93.8% and specificity is 95.6%, when tested at 2 Chinese hospitals in a total of 128 COVID19 positive patients, and 250 COVID19 negative patients (as detected by RT-qPCR).

https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/resources/COVID-19/serology/Serology-based-tests-for-COVID-19.html

Thus if we tested a population of 1000 people who didn't have COVID-19 - we would get 440 false positives (4.4%).

As far as I'm aware there aren't any COVID-19 antibody tests that have low enough false positive rates that the 3% found wouldn't most likely be predomiantly false positive.

DonaldD

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #52 on: April 16, 2020, 05:35:59 PM »
Did you mean 44 false positives? Or 10,000 people?

LetterRip

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #53 on: April 16, 2020, 05:39:07 PM »
whoops, slipped a decimal 10,000 people.

TheDrake

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #54 on: April 20, 2020, 01:52:20 PM »
Meanwhile in South America...

Quote
Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has fired Luiz Henrique Mandetta as minister of health, Mandetta said on Twitter Thursday afternoon.

But much of the country’s focus in recent days was on the widespread speculation that Bolsonaro was about to fire Mandetta, after the minister criticized the president on a popular news show for refusing to abide by the ministry’s social distancing guidelines.

In the Western Hemisphere, Brazil trails only the United States in confirmed cases of the virus. But Bolsonaro has repeatedly downplayed the severity of the outbreak — dismissing the virus as a “little flu,” shrugging off social distancing recommendations from the World Health Organization and sharing videos calling for an end to the country’s lockdown.

Bolsonaro largely ignored those calls. On a visit with Mandetta last weekend to a pop-up hospital outside Brasilia, he walked into a crowd, took off his mask, extended his hand for a supporter to kiss and autographed jerseys.

Mandetta clearly and consistently walked back Bolsonaro’s erroneous claims on covid-19 with science and data. When deaths began to soar, Bolsonaro said the virus appeared to be going away; Mandetta warned of “tough days” ahead. When Bolsonaro touted an unproven cure for the virus — “This medicine here, hydroxychloroquine, is working everywhere,” he claimed in a video on Facebook and Twitter — Mandetta said he would not endorse widespread use of the drug without a peer-reviewed study.

Bolsonaro’s approval ratings have fallen to a record low of 28 percent during the outbreak, according to an XP Investments poll published last week. Sixty-eight percent of those surveyed, in contrast, said Mandetta and his Health Ministry were doing a good or excellent job.

I implore everyone to avoid drawing comparisons to the US, though some are obvious. This thread has stayed remarkably clean of US politics.

And now this:

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As well as demanding an end to the lockdown, some of those attending the rally also held up signs calling for Brazil's Congress and the Supreme Court to be closed down.

Others said they wanted the military to take over the handling of the coronavirus crisis.

Brazil was under military rule for more than two decades from 1964 until 1985 and calls for the armed forces to be given more power are highly controversial.

While the president did not make any reference to those demands at the time, his appearance at the rally - at which people were calling for the closure of the country's democratic institutions - was labelled "provocative" by his critics.

On Monday, however, while talking to journalists, Mr Bolsonaro quickly responded to one of his supporters who called for the closure of the Supreme Court by stating that Brazil was a democratic country. He said that the nation's top court, as well as Congress, would remain open.

TheDrake

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #55 on: April 21, 2020, 01:18:53 PM »
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Italy has reported 24,114 deaths, the highest recorded toll in Europe.

Data released on Monday showed the number of people officially confirmed as infected with coronavirus had dropped for the first time since the outbreak began. Italian authorities said the symbolic drop of 20 cases was a "positive development".

And finally a ray of sunshine for Italy!

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Mr Conte posted his statement on Facebook on Tuesday morning, insisting the government was working non-stop to co-ordinate moves towards "phase two" of its lockdown - "coexistence" with the virus.

"I would like to be able to say, let's open everything. Right away," he wrote. "But such a decision would be irresponsible. It would make the contagion curve rise uncontrollably and would jeopardise all the efforts that we've made until now."

"The easing of measures must take place on the basis of a well-structured and articulated plan," he said, adding that Italy "cannot abandon the line of maximum caution".

Glad to see Italians are going to be prudent about opening gradually.

LetterRip

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #56 on: April 21, 2020, 02:44:09 PM »
So, pretty extreme measures and they have managed to get R to 1. Yikes.

DonaldD

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #57 on: April 21, 2020, 02:50:15 PM »
Yah, but they started too late...

yossarian22c

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #58 on: April 21, 2020, 02:50:55 PM »
So, pretty extreme measures and they have managed to get R to 1. Yikes.

The slow process to R = 1 is hampered by the lengthy incubation and recovery time. Also I'm sure not all the "recoveries" are tallied quickly, as those who recover most quickly are doing so at home without medical supervision. Testing still isn't up to the point that anyone is frequently testing people they already knew were positive to see if they stay that way.

But yes I find the slow incubation and the long period of time people are contagious very worrying.

Kasandra

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #59 on: April 24, 2020, 07:42:36 AM »
Another problem in the US is the slow decline of new cases after the supposed peak when compared to how other countries have fared.  The US rate is 2%; other countries range from 22% - 81% (excluding China, whose numbers are almost certainly unreliable).

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The number of new cases appears to have peaked about a week and a half ago. But the decline since then has been very modest. There are still about 30,000 Americans being diagnosed each day. The seven-day moving average of new cases — a measure that smooths out daily fluctuations — has declined only 2 percent since it peaked 11 days ago.

As you can see in the chart [in the linked article], that’s not typical. In other countries, the number of new cases has usually declined much more sharply after peaking.

In other words, the US has "flattened the curve" of the decline in new cases found through testing while those other countries have a much steeper rate.

fizz

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #60 on: May 07, 2020, 11:31:21 AM »
An interesting summing up report translated in english on the events and timelines of the spread of the pandemic in Lombardy in the past months. (Warning: long article).

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Il Post spoke with dozens of doctors, nurses, politicians, virologists and experts as well as ordinary people to gain an initial understanding of what happened in Lombardy, from pandemic preparedness to the peak of the crisis. Although there is no doubt that the picture we have is incomplete, it is a necessary first step in reconstructing an event whose consequences will have a long-term impact on us all.

https://www.ilpost.it/2020/05/07/two-months-that-shook-lombardy-to-the-core-coronavirus/

Kasandra

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #61 on: May 08, 2020, 08:48:31 AM »
Sobering and disturbing account, which probably corresponds to how most other European countries and the US failed to act decisively early enough to detect and contain the virus.  Perhaps as much as any other failing are initial complacency and a lack of imagination on the part of the government.  I can relate.

DonaldD

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TheDrake

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #63 on: May 29, 2020, 03:39:33 PM »
Brazil was mentioned in another thread, and they are looking really scary. They are now experiencing more new cases than the US with 2/3 the population, and their testing 10x less than the US.

Their mass graves aren't hype. The pictures are disturbing.

Kasandra

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #64 on: May 29, 2020, 04:02:40 PM »
There are good reasons to believe the numbers reported by Brazil are bogus, and that only goes in one direction.  It reminds me that I heard a few weeks ago that there are two ways a pandemic ends, either it is cured or people stop thinking about it.  Bolsonaro is trying to hurry the second wing (aka plan B) of that process along.

Kasandra

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #65 on: May 31, 2020, 07:16:26 AM »
Yes, they may end up being the control group I initially thought the UK was going to be.

Sort of; they closed large gatherings, high schools, colleges, and have people practicing social distancing. Sweden is a model for society after the full lock downs quash this initial spread. Their strategy isn't let the virus run rampant through younger people to build herd immunity in their society. What we need to see is if their measures are enough to keep the virus under control when implemented before the number of cases explodes.

At the beginning of this month Sweden's COVID-19 fatality rate per capita was 30% higher than the US.  Now it's about 36% higher.  They are protecting their elderly, but their overall approach isn't working all that well for the general population.  Their economy isn't likely to do better than their neighbors that implemented much stronger protective measures and have much lower fatality rates.

We need to stop selectively comparing and contrasting the US to other countries looking for escapes or excuses to avoid doing what needs to be done.  It may be too late for the first wave of the virus, which IMO will be the most deadly and destructive, but there are more waves to come that will cause great harm and havoc.  I haven't heard of a single recommendation from the CDC or White House for what they plan to do about this in the fall.  That is a reprehensible and immoral failure that borders on criminal.

yossarian22c

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #66 on: June 01, 2020, 11:56:06 PM »
Brazil and India are still showing large increases in cases. Its going to be a long year.

Kasandra

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #67 on: June 04, 2020, 09:15:42 AM »
Sweden "regrets" their approach to stopping coronavirus:

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Sweden’s chief epidemiologist and the architect of its light-touch approach to the coronavirus has acknowledged that the country has had too many deaths from Covid-19 and should have done more to curb the spread of the virus.

Anders Tegnell, who has previously criticised other countries’ strict lockdowns as not sustainable in the long run, told Swedish Radio on Wednesday that there was “quite obviously a potential for improvement in what we have done” in Sweden.

Asked whether too many people in Sweden had died, he replied: “Yes, absolutely,” adding that the country would “have to consider in the future whether there was a way of preventing” such a high toll.

Kasandra

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #68 on: June 04, 2020, 11:09:34 AM »
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Sweden "regrets" their approach to stopping coronavirus:

I realize that quotes are usually used to signify something someone said or wrote verbatim, but can also be used to characterize what someone said or wrote.  That's what I was doing here, since that word didn't appear in the article I linked to, but it was the sentiment.

TheDrake

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #69 on: June 05, 2020, 08:42:02 PM »
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There is no way yet to get a handle on the scope of the death and infection caused by the novel coronavirus. Official figures are issued by official sources and most observers estimate that infections and deaths are vastly underreported; in Brazil the cases are estimated to be 10 to 30 times greater than the official numbers. So statistics mean next to nothing at the present — only that things are bad.

Brazil’s official death count stood at 32,548 Wednesday night, Mexico’s at 11,729. In both countries the virus is raging; both countries’ presidents continue to try to minimize the seriousness of the situation.

Brazil’s health system has collapsed or is about to collapse, depending on the region. There are no intensive-care beds in many hospitals, especially the public ones where the poor and the marginalized are attended by woefully inadequate systems and services.

In many cases the infected are encouraged to stay indoors and isolate. In other cases, especially in Ecuador, people have died by the thousand in their homes, and occasionally on the streets.

To make matters worse, the municipal workers hired to collect the dead were overwhelmed, and after the corpses started to rot they were dragged to the streets and in some cases torched.

Latin America failed to contain Covid-19. It was too resilient to be overcome by a few weeks of quarantine. After 70 days of lockdowns the pressure to reopen was too powerful. Chile has suffered a second wave of infection after relaxing the quarantine too early and was forced to order an even more severe lockdown.

When Peru shut down the economy there were no buses or trains to take peasants back to their villages in the Andes, so people walked for days to get back to their families. In Colombia, thousands of Venezuelans who lost their aspirations returned to Venezuela, where Covid-19 is somewhat under control.

Paraguay, Uruguay and Costa Rica have better health outcomes and have begun the resumption of normality. With small populations, low population density and universal healthcare, they showed that the Covid pandemic can be controlled.

But two of the largest Latin American nations, Mexico and Brazil, are unable to cope with basic respiratory therapy for the dying. There are shortages of bottled oxygen, black-market prices gouge people for masks, medicines and palliative care — and for caskets and funerals.

Budget burials involve large holes in the ground with plastic bags instead of coffins.

In El Salvador the battle against Covid-19 is compromised by politicians and some sectors of the ruling class who insist that quarantines are unconstitutional and that to decree them is an abuse of power by President Nayib Bukele. The slogan one hears from the right is that Bukele is a dictator and should be removed from office.

Kasandra

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #70 on: June 06, 2020, 06:13:53 AM »
 :'(

TheDeamon

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #71 on: June 06, 2020, 07:35:36 PM »
Yes, they may end up being the control group I initially thought the UK was going to be.

Sort of; they closed large gatherings, high schools, colleges, and have people practicing social distancing. Sweden is a model for society after the full lock downs quash this initial spread. Their strategy isn't let the virus run rampant through younger people to build herd immunity in their society. What we need to see is if their measures are enough to keep the virus under control when implemented before the number of cases explodes.

At the beginning of this month Sweden's COVID-19 fatality rate per capita was 30% higher than the US.  Now it's about 36% higher.  They are protecting their elderly, but their overall approach isn't working all that well for the general population.  Their economy isn't likely to do better than their neighbors that implemented much stronger protective measures and have much lower fatality rates.

We need to stop selectively comparing and contrasting the US to other countries looking for escapes or excuses to avoid doing what needs to be done.  It may be too late for the first wave of the virus, which IMO will be the most deadly and destructive, but there are more waves to come that will cause great harm and havoc.  I haven't heard of a single recommendation from the CDC or White House for what they plan to do about this in the fall.  That is a reprehensible and immoral failure that borders on criminal.

It isn't over until the fat lady sings. we'll see what everybody's fatality rates look like once we're on the other side. The dick measuring contest at present is pointless. The only metrics that are meaningful for real-time analysis is rate of spread, and available bed space for treatment of severe cases.

Sweden may still come out ahead after all is said and done.

Kasandra

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #72 on: June 06, 2020, 09:29:45 PM »
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Sweden may still come out ahead after all is said and done.

Never admit you might be wrong. How long are you willing to wait?  A year, 5 years...?

TheDeamon

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #73 on: June 07, 2020, 02:36:44 AM »
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Sweden may still come out ahead after all is said and done.

Never admit you might be wrong. How long are you willing to wait?  A year, 5 years...?

A year is probably going to be more than sufficient. But "we don't know" at this time is the best answer available at this time. It could easily turn out to be 2 years, but the further out that time horizon runs, the better the odds should look for Sweden having made the right decision at the start.

Kasandra

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #74 on: June 07, 2020, 03:59:38 AM »
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Sweden may still come out ahead after all is said and done.

Never admit you might be wrong. How long are you willing to wait?  A year, 5 years...?

A year is probably going to be more than sufficient. But "we don't know" at this time is the best answer available at this time. It could easily turn out to be 2 years, but the further out that time horizon runs, the better the odds should look for Sweden having made the right decision at the start.

They just said they are giving up the approach and are going to use a new one.  In a year you'll see the results of how the new approach performed.

Kasandra

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #75 on: June 07, 2020, 04:44:36 PM »
Of the 120 countries in the world that have reported at least 1000 coronavirus cases, the US has climbed into 8th place on the number of deaths per capita.  We now have 1 death for every 2943 citizens.  Sweden remains in 5th place.

TheDeamon

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #76 on: June 07, 2020, 07:35:58 PM »
A year is probably going to be more than sufficient. But "we don't know" at this time is the best answer available at this time. It could easily turn out to be 2 years, but the further out that time horizon runs, the better the odds should look for Sweden having made the right decision at the start.

They just said they are giving up the approach and are going to use a new one.  In a year you'll see the results of how the new approach performed.

Well, that'll certainly complicate things.

But you do realize that with this virus, the longer the clock remain running, the greater the odds of "get it over with" being the better strategy increases? This does naturally run against the "hedge" of a vaccination strategy bearing fruit in the first year.

The virus spread far enough in Europe and the US by the start of March that the genie was never going back in the bottle. Track and trace can slow it down, but will never fully stop it. Lockdowns at this point have only been shown to slow it down, and unless you want to go full on totalitarian, even that cannot extinguish the virus once established in the population.

The George Floyd Protests are almost certainly going to spike it as well, and we're at the stage where a second lockdown is no longer politically viable. (On both sides)

It will be "interesting" to see just how close we push the needle to the limits of hospital capacity before this concludes. But much of the western world, thanks in no small part to George Floyd, is now likely going to have been better off to have done what Sweden did in the first place, even as Sweden backs away from it.

Kasandra

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #77 on: June 07, 2020, 09:13:18 PM »
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But you do realize that with this virus, the longer the clock remain running, the greater the odds of "get it over with" being the better strategy increases?

No, I don't.  Using relaxed guidelines aiming for herd immunity is only one way to go.  You're ignoring the countries that implemented more stringent restrictions that have far lower fatality rates.  Waiting to be right might end up killing many more people than needed to die.

Fenring

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #78 on: June 07, 2020, 10:16:28 PM »
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But you do realize that with this virus, the longer the clock remain running, the greater the odds of "get it over with" being the better strategy increases?

No, I don't.  Using relaxed guidelines aiming for herd immunity is only one way to go.  You're ignoring the countries that implemented more stringent restrictions that have far lower fatality rates.  Waiting to be right might end up killing many more people than needed to die.

I don't think you read that right. The longer the clock remain running, which means that the fewer people there are not exposed to it, the less of a killing zone that would be. Just to take it to the extreme, if lockdowns continue until 99% of the population is either a carrier or has gotten it already, it would clearly be better to open up rather than to keep a lockdown and wait another year for the vaccine. This is, of course, assuming that there is no mutation or that the same people can't get it over and over. That said, if they could, would a vaccine even work anyhow?

TheDeamon

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #79 on: June 07, 2020, 10:21:37 PM »
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But you do realize that with this virus, the longer the clock remain running, the greater the odds of "get it over with" being the better strategy increases?

No, I don't.  Using relaxed guidelines aiming for herd immunity is only one way to go.  You're ignoring the countries that implemented more stringent restrictions that have far lower fatality rates.  Waiting to be right might end up killing many more people than needed to die.

The ones who implemented more stringent restrictions aren't very good on civil rights in the first place. For many of the other countries that have attempted it, they're going to be able to sustain it indefinitely, the cracks are already starting to show. They probably have 6 another months at most, they're not going to make it to when the vaccine's are supposed to maybe become widely available. If they're effective.

TheDeamon

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #80 on: June 07, 2020, 10:25:20 PM »
Quote
But you do realize that with this virus, the longer the clock remain running, the greater the odds of "get it over with" being the better strategy increases?

No, I don't.  Using relaxed guidelines aiming for herd immunity is only one way to go.  You're ignoring the countries that implemented more stringent restrictions that have far lower fatality rates.  Waiting to be right might end up killing many more people than needed to die.

I don't think you read that right. The longer the clock remain running, which means that the fewer people there are not exposed to it, the less of a killing zone that would be. Just to take it to the extreme, if lockdowns continue until 99% of the population is either a carrier or has gotten it already, it would clearly be better to open up rather than to keep a lockdown and wait another year for the vaccine. This is, of course, assuming that there is no mutation or that the same people can't get it over and over. That said, if they could, would a vaccine even work anyhow?

Pretty much this. The longer the clock continues to run, the greater the risk of virtually everyone having been infected anyway. At which point all these countries turned their economies upside down for what exactly?

As to virus immunity duration vs mutation rate. So long as they can keep the vaccine "reasonably effective" on mitigating Covid19's impacts, they may end up with a big-pharma wet dream, and the "Tin-Foil Hat Club's" worst nightmare. An illness that in order to be protected from it, you need to be given a booster shot every 3/6/9 months for the next several years, or maybe even decades.

Kasandra

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #81 on: June 08, 2020, 03:58:08 AM »
The longer the clock runs the greater the chance for effective treatment(s) and vaccine(s).  I.e., fewer people get COVID, fewer people suffer severe consequences, fewer people die.  "Herd immunity" (if it happens) would only apply to the current strain and only for the duration of protective antibodies. 

Could it be more simple than that?

yossarian22c

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #82 on: June 08, 2020, 07:10:17 AM »
The longer the clock runs the greater the chance for effective treatment(s) and vaccine(s).  I.e., fewer people get COVID, fewer people suffer severe consequences, fewer people die.  "Herd immunity" (if it happens) would only apply to the current strain and only for the duration of protective antibodies. 

Could it be more simple than that?

Also even countries that have pursued limited shut downs, which Sweden did by closing schools and limiting large gatherings are only about 1/50 of the way to herd immunity. So they aren't any better off that way than their neighbors. This idea that any country that hasn't severely reduced their infections isn't better off than a country with a 1-2% herd immunity rate and more infections is pure fantasy.

TheDrake

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #83 on: June 08, 2020, 08:38:00 PM »
The biggest problem with herd immunity, is that currently we don't even know that you have immunity after having the disease.

TheDeamon

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #84 on: June 09, 2020, 12:06:10 AM »
The longer the clock runs the greater the chance for effective treatment(s) and vaccine(s).  I.e., fewer people get COVID, fewer people suffer severe consequences, fewer people die.  "Herd immunity" (if it happens) would only apply to the current strain and only for the duration of protective antibodies. 

Could it be more simple than that?

But you're betting on a thing which might not happen this year, or next, or the year after that.

I think we have decent odds on a vaccine before the end of the year, but that's a far cry from certainty. If you're wrong what then? Move the goalposts because the breakthrough that'll save us all "is just months away" from then?

This also ignores that the strict control measures can only remain in place for so long. You're not keeping them up for the better part of a year in much of the world.

In the mean time, even the partial lockdown is costing a lot of small and medium sized businesses a lot of money on a daily basis. Which brings us to the question of how society wants to weigh "the cost" of doing things. There is a growing body of evidence that many of the precautions against Covid19 may be nearly as bad as the virus itself.

Kasandra

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #85 on: June 09, 2020, 06:39:52 AM »
The longer the clock runs the greater the chance for effective treatment(s) and vaccine(s).  I.e., fewer people get COVID, fewer people suffer severe consequences, fewer people die.  "Herd immunity" (if it happens) would only apply to the current strain and only for the duration of protective antibodies. 

Could it be more simple than that?

But you're betting on a thing which might not happen this year, or next, or the year after that.

Neither, necessarily, will herd immunity, since no country has succeeded with that strategy.

Kasandra

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #86 on: June 10, 2020, 06:28:31 AM »
The US has now pushed past Ireland to the 8th highest per capita death rate in the world and will surpass the Netherlands in a matter of weeks.  The US death rate is not declining, and will likely increase over the next month with the relaxation of mask and distancing restrictions due to states reopening and the ongoing protests.  The latest statistics show that France, with about 20% of the population of the US, is recording new deaths at about 8% the rate of the US and is declining.  The US rate likely will catch up to France before the end of July.

Sweden remains in 5th place with a steady fatality rate and will likely stay in that position behind Italy, Spain, UK and Belgium, which are all steady or declining, unless they have a sustained spike in deaths in the coming months.

Crunch

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #87 on: June 10, 2020, 10:08:23 AM »
The biggest problem with herd immunity, is that currently we don't even know that you have immunity after having the disease.

From  The Journal of the American Medical Association:

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To date, no human reinfections with SARS-CoV-2 have been confirmed.
That was a few weeks ago, have there been any confirmed reinfections since then?

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Whether persons can be reinfected with SARS-CoV-1 and MERS-CoV is unknown; SARS has not reemerged since 2004 and MERS cases remain sporadic, Reinfections can occur with at least 3 of the other 4 common human coronaviruses—specifically, 229E, NL63, and OC43—all of which generally cause milder respiratory illnesses.

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For example, following infection with SARS-CoV-1 (the virus that caused SARS), concentrations of IgG remained high for approximately 4 to 5 months before subsequently declining slowly during the next 2 to 3 years.4 Similarly, NAbs following infection with MERS-CoV (the virus that caused Middle East respiratory syndrome) have persisted up to 34 months in recovered patients

Why should we think COVID will be different than these other similar virii? So far, the vast majority of what we were told to be scared of was wildly exaggerated. I suspect the same here.


TheDrake

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #88 on: June 11, 2020, 02:10:25 PM »
And now we are going to see the results of a do-nothing and pretend strategy, assuming we can get the data.

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Brazil’s government last week removed comprehensive numbers on coronavirus cases and deaths from the Health Ministry’s website, claiming without offering evidence that state officials had been reporting inflated figures to secure more federal funding. Late Monday, a Supreme Court justice ordered the government to stop suppressing the data.

They had 30,000 new cases in one day. They never slowed down the first wave before reopening.

new cases


Kasandra

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #89 on: June 12, 2020, 04:38:28 PM »
The US COVID-19 fatality rate (not the total number of deaths) will pass The Netherlands in the next few days.  When our death toll reaches about 160,000 we will overtake France's rate into 6th place and remain behind Sweden for some period of time.  As I mentioned, Dr. Jha who heads the Harvard Global Health Department, anticipates that the US will surpass 200,000 deaths sometime in September.  It's too soon to predict, but given the determination of Trump and many states to ignore safety precautions, the US may have the highest death rate in the world by next spring.  We are the only major country in the world (outside of Brazil and one or two others with far fewer cases) that treats the disease as a political problem for election and government control purposes, not a health issue of monumental proportions.

TheDrake

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #90 on: June 15, 2020, 01:32:16 PM »
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Before reopening, Pakistan had recorded about 25,000 infections. A month later, the country recorded an additional 100,000 cases — almost certainly an undercount — and the pandemic shows no signs of abating. At least 2,729 people have died, according to a Times database.

Pakistan is now reporting so many new cases that it is among the World Health Organization’s top 10 countries where the virus is on the rise. The W.H.O. wrote a letter criticizing the government’s efforts on June 7 and recommended that a lockdown be reimposed, stating that Pakistan did not meet any of the criteria needed to lift it.

Compounding the dire situation, medical workers across Pakistan are being assaulted on a near-daily basis for not being able to admit patients or having to tell families that their loved ones had died.

“Our hospitals are completely exhausted,” said one doctor, who asked for his name to be withheld because he is a government employee.

TheDrake

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #91 on: June 16, 2020, 01:01:45 PM »
I don't think we can trust the data coming out of Brazil any more. After it took an action of their Supreme Court to force the government to resume publishing data, we see a leveling off of new cases reported. There is no good explanation for why that would happen. Brazil's health minister position is now filled by a general with no medical experience, and he is appointing other people with military backgrounds to health ministry positions. This of course was on top of inadequate testing in the first place.

Kasandra

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #92 on: June 16, 2020, 01:07:36 PM »
The best method we will have in the US is to look at excess deaths during the period in which the pandemic flourished, and that will only give a statistical valuation.  The 1918 flu pandemic death totals were vastly undercounted during the time of the disease and only reconciled against total deaths retrospectively.  For all we know, Brazil may not even record all deaths in an accessible way, so it's very possible we'll never know how badly the country was hit.  One more country to cross off my list of places to visit before I take my long rest.

TheDrake

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #93 on: June 16, 2020, 01:13:17 PM »
There are always the problems in recording. Brazilians living in villages are likely going to just get sick and die without ever contacting a doctor, let alone getting a test or having a way to report. But that doesn't explain the leveling off of the data that they are able to gather.

There will be evidence of massive death in cities as they overrun healthcare and the ability to handle remains. Likely hard to quantify meaningfully, but impossible to hide.

Fenring

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #94 on: June 16, 2020, 01:22:23 PM »
This may be a funny question, but who cares about what Brazil is reporting? Why focus on them if they're so wacky?

TheDrake

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #95 on: June 16, 2020, 01:41:51 PM »
Because Brazil can be a bellwether for what a worst case might be without other countries having to experience it themselves. There is no perfect correlation, because cultures, demographics, living conditions, healthcare capacity, and many other factors are never going to match up. They are currently, however, #2 worldwide in reported deaths which immediately makes them worth paying attention to just on humanitarian grounds.

TheDrake

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #96 on: June 16, 2020, 01:43:41 PM »
Their leader is also the most fatalistic about the risk to his people worldwide (ignoring the US to keep this thread relatively clean of all the other discussions we've been having).

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President Jair Bolsonaro, who has repeatedly minimized the threat, said, “We are sorry for all the dead, but that’s everyone’s destiny.”

Kasandra

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #97 on: June 16, 2020, 02:49:24 PM »
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“We are sorry for all the dead, but that’s everyone’s destiny.”

That comes dangerously close to declaring that people have no rights other than to die.

DonaldD

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #98 on: June 16, 2020, 02:59:17 PM »
This may be a funny question, but who cares about what Brazil is reporting? Why focus on them if they're so wacky?
Because this topic is literally named "covid-19 outside the US", and Brazil is #2 in deaths worldwide and making all the noise.

cherrypoptart

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Re: covid-19 outside the US
« Reply #99 on: June 17, 2020, 07:04:00 AM »
They were working on a mask requirement bill. I hope that helps them. We should be doing the same.