Author Topic: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?  (Read 2175 times)

DonaldD

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Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
« Reply #100 on: November 01, 2020, 10:57:19 AM »
Polls had Clinton in Florida by .3%.
No, Clinton was down on Sunday by 0.3% not up. (0.3%) meant negative 0.3%

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Trump won Arizona by 3.54%.  A difference of over 7% from polling! 
Again (brackets) mean negative.  Clinton was down by 3.6% on Sunday.  The polls hit Arizona almost on the nail.

DonaldD

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Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
« Reply #101 on: November 01, 2020, 11:02:30 AM »
The only relevant errors were in Pennsylvania through the Midwest, where the weighting of rural/urban voters (also correlated with education levels) was not correctly done.

Pollsters identified that failure in the post-mortem of 2016, and those effects were completely absent in 2018.

They still might make a similar mistake (or one of similar magnitude) this time out, but there is no guarantee such an error will be in the same direction as in 2016.

Grant

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Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
« Reply #102 on: November 01, 2020, 11:11:02 AM »
No

I stand corrected.  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

DonaldD

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Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
« Reply #103 on: November 01, 2020, 11:22:48 AM »
I'd love to see the law and order people jump on this as hard as when BLM blocks highways. Buy yourself just a little bit of credibility. I think you can do it, even knowing you probably won't.
I have zero expectation that this will happen.  I especially don't expect them to take the president to task for encouraging these attackers after the fact.  Normally, we would all be asking ourselves "how could the president of the United States be encouraging violence captured on video by his followers against his opponent?"

But of course - Trump.  That this has become accepted behaviour by the leader of your country just shows how far down the rat hole the country has fallen.

TheDeamon

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Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
« Reply #104 on: November 01, 2020, 05:10:07 PM »
Pollsters identified that failure in the post-mortem of 2016, and those effects were completely absent in 2018.

Well, that certainly explains how the Republican candidate for Governor won in Florida in despite the Democratic candidate having a polling lead outside the margin of error according to some claims.

DonaldD

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Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
« Reply #105 on: November 01, 2020, 05:56:22 PM »
Pollsters identified that failure in the post-mortem of 2016, and those effects were completely absent in 2018.

Well, that certainly explains how the Republican candidate for Governor won in Florida in despite the Democratic candidate having a polling lead outside the margin of error according to some claims.

It's not clear what point you are trying to make here.  The failure they identified had to do with urban/rural weighting in the Midwest in 2016.  Florida was not in the Midwest, neither in 2016 nor in 2018.  Secondly, the Florida presidential vote count in 2016 closely matched the 538 predictions - so that "failure" did not exist in 2016.  Are you suggesting that the issue that had not existed in Florida in 2016 magically became an issue with the polls in Florida in 2018, and that it was the exact same issue as encountered in the Midwest in 2016?  If so, what evidence do you have for that?

Finally, I expect you are making some stronger claim - that the polling nationwide was really questionable in 2018 as well.  But 538 polls were consistent with the vast majority of the governorship races in 2018, with the one notable exception of Florida.  In fact, 538 forecast that the Democrats would hold 24 governorships (based on their mean prediction) after the 2018 election, whereas the Democrats actually only ended up with 23.  With 35 governorships up for election, and given that De Santis had a 1 in 5 chance, it was highly likely that at least one such outlier managed to beat the odds.  Are you really claiming that a failure rate of less than 3% is somehow evidence of your proposition?

TheDeamon

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Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
« Reply #106 on: November 01, 2020, 06:58:32 PM »
Speaking of destroying your enemies...

https://www.thedailybeast.com/biden-camp-cancels-austin-texas-event-after-pro-trump-ambush-on-campaign-bus

https://youtu.be/QrnvnWh2Rm8?t=212

Yup, crazed Trump driver tailgating the Biden-Harris Bus has a vehicle forcefully enter its lane and the crazed Trump driver gets blamed for "trying to run a Democratic Staffer off of the road" after said staffer made an illegal lane change?

What the MAGA's did there was retarded, but they (democrats) really need to check their narratives.
« Last Edit: November 01, 2020, 07:04:00 PM by TheDeamon »

kidv

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Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
« Reply #107 on: November 03, 2020, 04:31:53 AM »
Speaking of destroying your enemies...

https://www.thedailybeast.com/biden-camp-cancels-austin-texas-event-after-pro-trump-ambush-on-campaign-bus

https://youtu.be/QrnvnWh2Rm8?t=212

Yup, crazed Trump driver tailgating the Biden-Harris Bus has a vehicle forcefully enter its lane and the crazed Trump driver gets blamed for "trying to run a Democratic Staffer off of the road" after said staffer made an illegal lane change?

What the MAGA's did there was retarded, but they (democrats) really need to check their narratives.

Quotes are supposed to indicate actual quotations.

The Newsweek article linked by DonaldD and responded to by TheDeamon quotes historian Dr. Eric Cervini as saying, "“These Trump supporters, many of whom were armed, surrounded the bus on the interstate and attempted to drive it off the road,” he alleged. “They outnumbered police 50-1, and they ended up hitting a staffer’s car.”"

The Newsweek article also states, "A Biden campaign staffer told The Daily Beast that Trump supporters surrounded the bus on the highway and slowed down in front of it, attempting to stop it or run it off the road.  . . . Video from the highway shows trucks surrounding the bus, at one point colliding with an SUV."

(see the dailybeast link above)

The article does not claim that an SUV was attempted to be run off the road.  The article, quoting Cervini and a different person, a Biden staffer, only refers to attempts to stop the Biden bus or run it off the road.  The article states that trucks "[hit a staffer's car / at one point collid[ed] with an SUV]."

The post I respond to gives an unsourced quote of a "crazed Trump driver gets blamed for 'trying to run a Democratic Staffer off of the road' after said staffer made an illegal lane change?" (TheDeamon Ornery.org)

The quoted phrase "trying to run a Democratic staffer off of the road" does not appear anywhere in the Newsweek / Daily Beast article referred to and responded to.  The only reference in the Newsweek / Daily Beast article to the Democratic staffer appears to precisely state that the staffer's car was hit.  This appears to be a deliberate and factually correct statement by a professional journalist writing an article for an actual news outlet.

 In reviewing the video, and the video article linked by TheDeamon, I am gratified the Newsweek / Daily Beast article did not say more than a truck "collid[ed] with an SUV" with respect to the staffer's car.  The professional news media focused its story on the Biden campaign bus. 


To state what I believe the video shows, without editorial, concerning the SUV / truck collision:

A Trump adorned black truck is tailgating the Biden bus in the far right lane.  A white SUV in the center lane, to the left of the Biden bus and black truck, attempts to merge in front of the black truck.  The white SUV activates its turn signal and slowly moves partially into the lane occupied by the black truck. The black truck does not yield, [without a legal duty to do so], and the white SUV rides along next to the black truck for a period of time, partially in the black truck's lane. Both vehicles maintain their positions for a period of time.  The white SUV continues to manifest an intent to merge between the bus and the black truck.  The white SUV does not have right of way and the black truck does not yield. Both vehicles maintain their positions. At some point while the two vehicles are driving partially side by side, with the white SUV partially in the black truck's lane, the black truck swerves to the left into the side of the white SUV.  The black truck drives into the white SUV, pushing the white SUV over to the center lane, and the black truck turns back into its lane.  The black truck then drives to the left again into the side of the white SUV, this time pushing the white SUV into the center lane while the black truck continues driving into the center lane while continuing the collision.  The black truck drives at least one full tire width into the center lane while pushing against the white SUV.  The black truck then returns to its original position tailgating the Biden bus in the far right lane.

I believe that is an accurate description of the video of the collision.  If anyone wishes to affirm that as an accurate representation, or dispute or add any element, please do so.


I don't believe it's helpful to rational discourse to "quote" statements or claims which are not actual statements or quotes.  People may believe that the quotes accurately represent a statement made in a linked article, and perpetuate that quotation.  If the "quote" is actually a fabricated statement, a breakdown in rational discourse can ensue.

[edit: 3 typos]
« Last Edit: November 03, 2020, 04:35:19 AM by kidv »

TheDeamon

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Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
« Reply #108 on: November 03, 2020, 11:14:00 AM »
I was responding more to doctor Cervini than Newsweek. the "crazed trump driver" was mild hyperbole, in that for many leftists, anyone who supports Trump is crazed by default.

And looking a little further into Cervini's thread, I'm amused by this one as well:

https://twitter.com/ericcervini/status/1322336490836381696

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"The police refused to help. When I flagged down one officer, he said his hands were tied: “not my jurisdiction.” He was wearing a blue stripe bandana. 4/

Because as was recently demonstrated on this forum, many people believe the "Thin Blue Line" flag is the emblem of a fascist organization, rather than a symbol created by law enforcement members to show support for law enforcement, in particular those who have fallen in the line of duty. (The flag is in black and white to indicate mourning, the blue line down the center indicates law enforcement)

But getting back to the Truck collision:
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These Trump supporters, many of whom were armed, surrounded the bus on the interstate and attempted to drive it off the road. They outnumbered police 50-1, and they ended up hitting a staffer’s car. 3/

In colloquial english, "they ended up hitting a staffer's car." Indicates that it was the Trump supporter that hit the staffer, not the other way around.

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To state what I believe the video shows, without editorial, concerning the SUV / truck collision:

A Trump adorned black truck is tailgating the Biden bus in the far right lane.  A white SUV in the center lane, to the left of the Biden bus and black truck, attempts to merge in front of the black truck.  The white SUV activates its turn signal and slowly moves partially into the lane occupied by the black truck. The black truck does not yield, [without a legal duty to do so], and the white SUV rides along next to the black truck for a period of time, partially in the black truck's lane. Both vehicles maintain their positions for a period of time.  The white SUV continues to manifest an intent to merge between the bus and the black truck.  The white SUV does not have right of way and the black truck does not yield. Both vehicles maintain their positions. At some point while the two vehicles are driving partially side by side, with the white SUV partially in the black truck's lane, the black truck swerves to the left into the side of the white SUV.  The black truck drives into the white SUV, pushing the white SUV over to the center lane, and the black truck turns back into its lane.

You were fine up to this point. However:
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The black truck then drives to the left again into the side of the white SUV, this time pushing the white SUV into the center lane while the black truck continues driving into the center lane while continuing the collision.  The black truck drives at least one full tire width into the center lane while pushing against the white SUV.  The black truck then returns to its original position tailgating the Biden bus in the far right lane.

Is not supported by the video evidence I've seen.

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I believe that is an accurate description of the video of the collision.  If anyone wishes to affirm that as an accurate representation, or dispute or add any element, please do so.

1) White SUV makes illegal lane change into the side of the black truck.
2) Black truck "pushes" white SUV back into the center of the middle lane and starts returning to right hand lane, White SUV continues to maintain contact with the black truck
3) Black truck pushes the the white SUV into the center of middle lane again
Even better:
4) (timestamp 4:02 on the previously linked video, but for ease: https://youtu.be/QrnvnWh2Rm8?t=241 ) the White SUV attempts again to make another forced entry into the right hand lane, although they quickly changed their mind about pursuing it further after the previous rounds.

It could also be noted that the 16 second video clip that Cervini used to open his twitter thread to complain about the staffer's car "being hit" by a Trump supporter?

He seems to be wanting to frame that as the truck in the ditch belonged to a Biden supporter... But it appears to me that the black truck in the ditch was flying a Trump flag. So the only cars that found a ditch, as supported by video, were those driven by Trump supporters?
« Last Edit: November 03, 2020, 11:20:01 AM by TheDeamon »

wmLambert

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Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
« Reply #109 on: November 03, 2020, 12:01:57 PM »
This would be all over the MSM if the video supported the Biden view. Since they are staying away, I doubt any closer examination does any good for the Biden camp.

TheDeamon

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Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
« Reply #110 on: November 03, 2020, 12:03:58 PM »
This would be all over the MSM if the video supported the Biden view. Since they are staying away, I doubt any closer examination does any good for the Biden camp.

Oh they're reporting on it, they show the edited clip of the Trump truck pushing the staffer's car back into it's initial lane of travel. They also report that "the FBI has opened an investigation" to determine if it was terrorism or not.

But it is fun to see how they breathlessly report on that and want to use it as proof of wrongdoing, but they have radio silence about the FBI investigation of Hunter Biden's computer.

Seriati

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Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
« Reply #111 on: November 03, 2020, 12:40:36 PM »
Biden's large lead has been remarkably stable, except for recent growth to about 10%. Looks like almost 350 electoral college votes for Biden/Harris, less than 200 for Trump/Pence. Unlike 2016, Biden's lead is above 50% nationally, and of the small number of undecided voters, most of them are likely to go for the challenger over the incumbent.

Sorry, been completely swamped at work pretty much since March.  It's certainly possible that Biden wins big, though I tend to think the actual vote is closer than the polling indicates.  I do think we've already had significant and material voter fraud in favor of Biden, but the absolute rule of voter fraud is it's difficult to catch and no matter how egregious is never going to be counted by anyone as resulting in a stolen election if its pro-democrat.

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I predict there will be considerable attempts to make excuses after the loss. Like the three million imaginary illegal voters that Trump used to explain his loss of the popular vote even as he won the electoral college in 2016.

No, the only reason for this loss, assuming it turns out to be a loss, is the overwhelming blanket of false media coverage for four years.  Non-stop propaganda is why a Republican President that's had a very significant level of success, where 56% of people believe their lives are better than they were four years ago (according to a recent poll), where real family income increased significantly more in four years than in the entire eight years of the prior administration, where the economy was record pace before COVID and recovering at record pace even with COVID is somehow an underdog in an election with a candidate that everyone knows is either senile or suffering from a continuous stream of micro-strokes.  Who won't serve out his term and is a trojan horse for the worst set of political goals put forward by a major party in at least 50 years.

So many people "hate" Trump and can barely tell you why without reverting to sound bites and assertions without evidence.  Okay, that's their right, but it's beyond stupid as a basis for a vote.  Too many think they are voting for prom king and just need to pick the person that they like better, not enough are actually thinking about the real consequences of the policies that will entail.

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So I'd like some predictions from those of you who are going to be trying out excuses in mid-to-late November. When you make accusations about cheating, do you predict that there will be an equal amount of cheating in states with Republican Governors and Secretaries of State, or will your theory of cheating be based on only states where Democrats are in charge? Will you predict that the results will favor Biden more than the pre-election polling in states (like California) where every voter is sent a ballot?

For Democrats cheating is endemic and something to be covered up and protected, for Republicans its an aberration and something to be exposed.  So yes, the party that has favored the Ends justifying the means for decades will cheat more now than the other one (you can find people saying they are cheating on any college kids SnapChat or Instagram by the way).

CA will have an even bigger number of votes for Biden than Hillary, so will all the Blue strongholds that are dominated by angry white liberals.  Karens love Biden, as do white virtue signalers, and they are big populations in some of those states.  I think Trump improves in black and hispanic communities, but I could be wrong, but not by enough as should be expected and it may show more by a lack of voting than a switch of votes.

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My prediction is that the votes for Biden and Trump will be similar to the polling results, with a slight Biden tilt as the late deciders go against the incumbent.

If local voting results  are similar to polling results, that is to me evidence that the results were rigged.  The overall direction could align with the polls but there are too many issues with polling for it to track local results closely (absent manipulation).   Too much tracking makes me think that the results were pushed to match the pro-Biden polls (be fascinated if a real statistical analysis is done on this point - we'll never see it though).

Any event, my prediction from when I first read this thread was Biden probably wins, but not clear if its because of actual votes or fraudulent votes (but the media will never run that story).   My prediction now is that it's less clear, I really think there are 3 possibilities and I can't distinguish between them:

1.  Biden in a landslide, if the Trump hate is strong enough this is possible.  Be honest no one cares about Biden, no one is excited to vote for him, but the hate-thusiam may be strong enough to cause this.

2.  Biden in a squeaker.  Comes down to one or two states and most likely months of law suits, with the media full on press about how Trump's trying to steal the election, no matter how many fraud or other issues come up against the Dems they get non-reported or dismissed.

3.  Trump in a decisive electoral college win.  While the polling says no, the crowd sizes and the overwhelming Trump sign advantage outside of Democratic strongholds, the presence of the silent Trump voters, and the inroads Trump made with traditional Dem voters make this a possibility.  I suspect that this becomes more likely the larger the in person voting becomes.  Media refuses to concede and runs hour after hour of stolen election coverage, blows up any disparity or irregularity into a national scandal (as opposed to burying them in scenario 2).

So I don't know.  I think the fix is in, and that there's enough vote manipulation that Trump can't win any state where the Dems have influence on the process, but I could be wrong.

msquared

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Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
« Reply #112 on: November 03, 2020, 12:46:09 PM »
Welcome to Ornery.  You are wrong.

msquared

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Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
« Reply #113 on: November 03, 2020, 12:46:49 PM »
We will see how many old timers get that line.

rightleft22

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Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
« Reply #114 on: November 03, 2020, 12:48:54 PM »
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So I don't know.  I think the fix is in, and that there's enough vote manipulation that Trump can't win any state where the Dems have influence on the process, but I could be wrong.

I'm not betting against Trump having a second term

but I don't know. I think the fix is in, that their is enough voter manipulation and repression that Biden can't win any state where the Republicans have influence on the process, but I could be wrong

Two totally different experiences of reality. we each live in different worlds.

kidv

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Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
« Reply #115 on: November 03, 2020, 01:08:13 PM »
I would invite anyone to watch the actual 24 second video of the collisions, of which a link is provided in the Dailybeast article linked above.

Here is the direct link to the first linked video in the dailybeast article.   

https://twitter.com/ericcervini/status/1322546782572859395

It shows the white SUV (apparently driven by a Biden staffer) riding alongside the black Trump truck, partially in the black truck's lane, for approximately 15 seconds, both vehicles peaceably maintaining their positions. 

Detail I omitted previously is that the white SUV is one half a car length ahead of the black truck.  At 15 seconds the black truck swerves into the side of the the white SUV.  [Both vehicles are in contact with each other for a second or two.] The sequence of collisions ends with the black truck driving into the center lane by at least a full tire width and hitting the side of the white SUV with the front of the black truck.  The white SUV steers away to the left. You may wish to pause and review at 17 and 18 seconds. 

The video TheDeamon links and continues to refer to is a 9 minute and 10 second presentation that talks about and misrepresents the 24 second video while never actually showing the 24 second video. The video TheDeamon links shows 5 seconds of the clip, says "From that angle that looks little bit bad, but they only released 24 seconds of the whole clip. Here's the whole clip." And then the video TheDeamon links only shows the last two second clip of the collision, and then continues.  (I believe starting at about 17-18 seconds which I referred above.)

The video TheDeamon links then shows a different video, from 4:24 to 4:46, which shows the white SUV and the black truck riding along next to each other for a complete 22 seconds.  The white SUV is partially in the black truck's lane, with the midline to rear quarter about even with the black truck's front bumper.  Both vehicles are riding next to each other in close formation.  The white SUV does not make any contact with the black truck.  [This is played over sinister music with a voiceover claiming the white SUV was trying the force the black truck off the road.]  It does not appear the video TheDeamon links ever shows the complete 24 second which the speaker declares was never shown to the audience, but the speaker continues to describe how misrepresented the incident has been portrayed.

To attempt to overcome this misrepresentation I believe it best to look at the actual original video without commentary which I link to above, which the DailyBeast article links to.

So with both videos together, the white SUV and black truck drove together for at least 22 seconds until the black truck steered into the side of the white SUV, the white SUV moved and stabilized, the vehicles contacted again, and the black truck drove into the side of the white SUV and continued to do so driving into the center lane while in contact with the white SUV.  The white SUV steered away and to the far side of the left lane.  The collision ended. 

I do not believe I am mis-describing the collision, nor did I before.  It is legally and factually relevant (from an intent and fault standpoint), that the front of the black truck drove into the side of the white SUV, and had to swerve left to do so, when they had been driving together in detente for at least 24 seconds.

Please advise.

----------------------

As to the Cervini tweet showing a line of trucks with the lead truck in the median, [welcome to ornery, you are wrong.] As I understood, Dr. Cervini was describing a long line of Trump trucks parked and waiting along the freeway, waiting to intercept the Biden campaign bus, which later occurred.  The lead truck appears to simply be parked in the median as cool trucks can do.  I did not understand it to be a representation of a truck forced off the road, but the lead vehicle in a long line of waiting Trump trucks. [I find it interesting as I notice that the video TheDeamon links to is titled "Kamala CHASED OUT Of Texas By Trump Supporters! Leftists LIE About What Happened, Here's The TRUTH." I continue to find it amusing that the "24 second video" which was withheld from us is never played in the 9:10 summation of Kamala being "CHASED OUT Of Texas . . .")

https://twitter.com/ericcervini/status/1322336226792321025  This is also directly linked in the DailyBeast article.


When a factual dispute arises, continuing to rely on or cite to sources which misrepresent source material can interfere with and actually prevent coming to a common understanding of undisputed facts, and interfere with rational discourse.  I continue to be pleasantly surprised by professional journalists who follow standards in presenting news.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/biden-camp-cancels-austin-texas-event-after-pro-trump-ambush-on-campaign-bus



 


TheDeamon

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Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
« Reply #116 on: November 03, 2020, 01:27:37 PM »
You need to pay more attention, I'd love to see where the actual source video's are. The links you provide only goto redacted edited versions of the source material, and the youtube video I link to has the more complete version (and two different perspectives) of the vehicle on vehicle encounter.

If you listen to the commentary of the people filming those videos you'd also note the camera people seem to be pro-trump and amused to see what's going on. (At least until the collision happens, after which they call the white SUV driver bad names)

Which doesn't match up with pro-biden activists suddenly becoming the source for the footage they're using.

Yes, the video I linked isn't the primary source, and he does some obvious manipulation of the video, but his manipulation consists of freeze framing and highlighting things, not deleting material video evidence.

I'd love to see the guy who could post-process their way into ever changing perspectives and filming angles. I guess if he had some high end gear and rendered the entire situation to create what he wanted to show "deep fake style" that's possible, but given the time frame of these video's going up and everything else, that's some hard-core tin-foil hat conspiracy theory BS.
« Last Edit: November 03, 2020, 01:38:54 PM by TheDeamon »

Seriati

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Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
« Reply #117 on: November 03, 2020, 01:35:08 PM »
I'd love to see the law and order people jump on this as hard as when BLM blocks highways. Buy yourself just a little bit of credibility. I think you can do it, even knowing you probably won't.
I have zero expectation that this will happen.  I especially don't expect them to take the president to task for encouraging these attackers after the fact.  Normally, we would all be asking ourselves "how could the president of the United States be encouraging violence captured on video by his followers against his opponent?"

But of course - Trump.  That this has become accepted behaviour by the leader of your country just shows how far down the rat hole the country has fallen.

Yes of course its Trump, only in your delusion.  We have Democratic mayors, governors and prosecutors that have openly encouraged and turned blind eyes to rioters for months and it's all Trump's fault.  Lol.

I don't like anyone blocking roads, no matter their politics, and in this case its particularly un-productive because letting Biden speak is actually the best way to undermine Biden.

However, I do find it curious that there do seem to be an enormous amount of extremely passionate Trump supporters all over the country, yet that somehow doesn't show up in the polling.  Is that an error?  Is that an illusion?  Is it a question that you're ready to ask yourself why you only see those massive crowds when the media wants to criticize them?  Bet you would see them if Biden was drawing them.

At the end of the day, no matter how happy you are if Biden wins, you really need to wake up to the misinformation that you are being fed.  You can't have a free country if this continues.  This election should have been about an honest discussion of the candidates strengths and weaknesses and the policies they are going to pursue on the country's behalf, and it's been anything but that.  If Biden is following the right policies and is the clear better choice, why is the media doing everything in its power to bury the discussion that would show it?  Do you ever ask yourself these questions?

Seriati

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Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
« Reply #118 on: November 03, 2020, 01:44:06 PM »
We will see how many old timers get that line.

Funny enough, pretty sure it's the first time its been said to me.

Seriati

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Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
« Reply #119 on: November 03, 2020, 01:47:36 PM »
Quote
So I don't know.  I think the fix is in, and that there's enough vote manipulation that Trump can't win any state where the Dems have influence on the process, but I could be wrong.

I'm not betting against Trump having a second term

but I don't know. I think the fix is in, that their is enough voter manipulation and repression that Biden can't win any state where the Republicans have influence on the process, but I could be wrong

Two totally different experiences of reality. we each live in different worlds.

Well except you'd be hard pressed to describe a vector for the Republicans to engage in wide spread vote manipulation.  For the most part, Republicans are strong in lower population counties, where they just can find enough votes to add, even if they wanted to do so.  They are also largely support the rule of law, the constitution and generally are law and order types.  Politicians are not the same as the voters that support them, and there are unethical people on all sides, but casual acceptance of the ends justifying the means is not a Republican ideal.

But I congratulate you on once again thinking you made a point by flipping the names in a quote, even if you didn't engage in a second's worth of actual analysis to do it.

msquared

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Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
« Reply #120 on: November 03, 2020, 01:48:43 PM »
For those who do not know, when Ornery was founded around 20 years ago, that was the traditional welcoming to a new poster.

Welcome to Ornery. You are wrong.

Seriati

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Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
« Reply #121 on: November 03, 2020, 01:55:44 PM »
Here is the direct link to the first linked video in the dailybeast article.   

https://twitter.com/ericcervini/status/1322546782572859395

It shows the white SUV (apparently driven by a Biden staffer) riding alongside the black Trump truck, partially in the black truck's lane, for approximately 15 seconds, both vehicles peaceably maintaining their positions.

This is the only version I've watched and it's completely useless.  Why would you cite to a video that doesn't have a direct view of the two vehicles and doesn't record who initiated the contact?

This has no value as a piece of evidence.

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Detail I omitted previously is that the white SUV is one half a car length ahead of the black truck.  At 15 seconds the black truck swerves into the side of the the white SUV.  [Both vehicles are in contact with each other for a second or two.] The sequence of collisions ends with the black truck driving into the center lane by at least a full tire width and hitting the side of the white SUV with the front of the black truck.  The white SUV steers away to the left. You may wish to pause and review at 17 and 18 seconds.

Given that you missed the only key piece of evidence a video would provide - how it started - the fact that the after effects showed this means nothing.  This is exactly what you would expect if the SUV initiated a contact with the pick-up, and honestly, that initiation of contact would be criminal.  The truck deserved a ticket for dangerous driving and tailgating, but SUV driver also deserves an even larger ticket for dangerous driving (and tailgating and lane infringement).   

Quote
To attempt to overcome this misrepresentation I believe it best to look at the actual original video without commentary which I link to above, which the DailyBeast article links to.

I may, but your credibility took hit with me when I followed the link above.

Fenring

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Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
« Reply #122 on: November 03, 2020, 01:59:45 PM »
Here is the direct link to the first linked video in the dailybeast article.   

https://twitter.com/ericcervini/status/1322546782572859395

Ok, I just watched this video...

Quote
It shows the white SUV (apparently driven by a Biden staffer) riding alongside the black Trump truck, partially in the black truck's lane, for approximately 15 seconds, both vehicles peaceably maintaining their positions.

This seems like a bizarre way to categorize what I would call an incredibly aggressive (or dangerous) driving position of the white SUV. That's like saying a person is 'peaceably' maintaining his distance from a guy while aiming a gun at him. The white SUV is either changing lanes without looking, which is a bit hard to believe given how long it went on without honking and course-correcting, or it's something else.

The something else might not be so clear-cut, but I could imagine two cases that I would reasonably expect to see on the road:

1) White SUV was trying to change lanes, black vehicle moves forward to not let him in, white SUV angrily stays in merging position refusing to not be allowed to merge, remaining slightly forward and still half in the inside lane. The ensuing positioning and maneuvering would then be the white SUV refusing to take no for an answer and trying to push in front of the black vehicle.

2) White SUV is doing what I've seen before on occasion, someone messing with someone else on the road, taunting them or driving aggressively toward them. It's even happened to me once or twice randomly on the highway, someone driving in a way that should get them arrested if seen, basically threatening you for fun. Or it could be out of rage, like if you honk people who do dangerous things, one out of every thousand will go berserk and actually go insane.

Based on the video, it really looks more like #2, although it could in theory be #1. There is nothing peaceable about the situation either way, the driver of the white SUV is a maniac.
« Last Edit: November 03, 2020, 02:09:00 PM by Fenring »

TheDeamon

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Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
« Reply #123 on: November 03, 2020, 02:11:59 PM »
I would invite anyone to watch the actual 24 second video of the collisions, of which a link is provided in the Dailybeast article linked above.

Here is the direct link to the first linked video in the dailybeast article.   

https://twitter.com/ericcervini/status/1322546782572859395

That video is a line of trucks flying trump flags with a black truck in the ditch at the front of the line... Also with a Trump flag? I already mentioned this previously. (the tailgate doesn't match the other black truck involved with the white SUV with the Democrat staffer)

Quote
It shows the white SUV (apparently driven by a Biden staffer) riding alongside the black Trump truck, partially in the black truck's lane, for approximately 15 seconds, both vehicles peaceably maintaining their positions.

Now "the other angle" https://youtu.be/QrnvnWh2Rm8?t=261
4:23 to 4:46 which appears to be immediately before the video of what the two vehicles come into contact with each other.

That 23 second video is presumably taken from the white truck to the left of and just in front of the White SUV in the (earlier) other video. (time stamp 3:38)

The video of "the collision event" runs from 3:32(the SUV and black truck enter the frame at 3:36) to 3:40, at which point he stops to interject some commentary. But then he resumes at 3:47 and continues to 4:14.... 3:32 to 3:40 is 8 seconds, 3:47(okay, 3:47 to 3:51 is a repeat of 3:36 to 3:40) to 4:14 is 27(or 23 due to the 4 second over-lap) seconds, that seems to come out to 31 seconds worth of video in total from the youtuber.

Oh and a further review of the Dailybeast video... The Youtuber I'm referencing dropped the first 9-ish seconds of the clip the Dailybeast shows. So they have roughly 14 seconds of overlap from the same primary source video,  the Dailybeast cuts away immediately after the side-swipe happens, while the youtuber I'm linking to continues with the source video for another 13 seconds where she states the SUV driver from California(The DNC staffer) was in the wrong.

Also incidentally, the Dailybeast's "10 seconds earlier video" also corroborates my claim of the "second source" being the white pickup truck. As you can see it lane change, go around the other white truck also flying Trump flags, and pull up alongside the Staffer's SUV.

Also, at 4:00 to 4:05 you can see the staffer car try to invade the right hand lane again before thinking better of it.
« Last Edit: November 03, 2020, 02:22:44 PM by TheDeamon »

Fenring

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Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
« Reply #124 on: November 03, 2020, 02:27:19 PM »
Now "the other angle" https://youtu.be/QrnvnWh2Rm8?t=261
4:23 to 4:46 which appears to be immediately before the video of what the two vehicles come into contact with each other.

After watching this one as well, it seems difficult to interpret the situation any other way than to say that whoever was driving the white SUV should be arrested. Despite Seriati's comment above, I'm not 100% sure the black vehicle finally doing what it did is illegitimate, if you believe you are mortal danger and try to knock the other guy to make him stop attacking your position. I wouldn't have done it, but I could see how it could be understood to be the highway version of self-defense.

DonaldD

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Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
« Reply #125 on: November 03, 2020, 02:31:33 PM »
Would anybody here behave like either of those two drivers, in a normal situation? Trying to squeeze between two vehicles, while the vehicle you are closest to refuses to make room?  Or seeing somebody merging into your lane, an instead of allowing the merge, tailgating the vehicle in front so closely that the other vehicle cannot merge?

I guarantee you that both of those drivers would have been ticketed if a cop was there.

Of course, pretending this was a normal situation is silly.  There were at least a dozen vehicles (probably more) where the drivers were coordinating their actions so as to intimidate other drivers on the road, surrounding the other vehicles and even slowing down immediately in front of them (at the least) far below what would be a safe speed on an expressway.

As far as the specific actions of the white van and the black truck drivers during the collision are concerned - there doesn't seem to be any video showing the white car turning into the black truck - the only lateral movement towards contact shown on the video is the black truck moving into the space occupied by the white van.  Is there a time sequence on the video showing otherwise? (and I don't mean where the white vehicle is driving parallel to the black truck, and encroaching in an unsafe manner. I mean unambiguously actually initiating contact.) 

DonaldD

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Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
« Reply #126 on: November 03, 2020, 02:32:31 PM »
After watching this one as well, it seems difficult to interpret the situation any other way than to say that whoever was driving the white SUV should be arrested. Despite Seriati's comment above, I'm not 100% sure the black vehicle finally doing what it did is illegitimate, if you believe you are mortal danger and try to knock the other guy to make him stop attacking your position. I wouldn't have done it, but I could see how it could be understood to be the highway version of self-defense.
Um, well.. Yeah, getting pissed and using your vehicle to strike another vehicle will get you arrested for any number of reasons.

kidv

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Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
« Reply #127 on: November 03, 2020, 02:34:25 PM »
Re: Collision in Texas.

There is only one original video which shows the collision. 

The video embedded in the link from the Dailybeast article (press play on the top picture embedded in the tweet) is a 24 second video which shows 15 seconds before the collision to 6 seconds after.  The collision occurs from ~15 to 19 seconds.  You can go Zapruder and pause and advance each frame.  https://twitter.com/ericcervini/status/1322546782572859395

The link shared by TheDeamon [Liberal Hivemind] plays 5 seconds of the above 24 second video, doing so from 3:35 to 3:40 of the video.  [The narrator complains about us not being given entire 24 second clip, and then says "here's the whole clip." Then 'Liberal Hivemind" plays, from 3:48 to 4:13 of his video, the clip linked above starting at 15 seconds (the collision) to an additional 15 seconds.  "Liberal Hivemind" never plays the first 15 seconds of the original video.  "Liberal Hivemind" plays a different video, from 4:24 to 4:46. which shows some time prior to the collision, which shows the white SUV and black truck driving in close proximity semi-copacetically sharing a piece of lane for 22 seconds.  If you want to go Zapruder on that video, you can slow youtube to .25 frames per second and play 3:35 to 4:40 to your delight.

--------------------

Reply to Fenring:  We're now all talking about the same video (or the same 5 seconds of that video).  There's only one source video which shows the collision.  I'm mystified to be faulted for sharing the link to that video.  It shows what is shows, and we can have a rational discussion about it.

----------------

How we got here:  "Liberal Hivemind"'s video referred to a 24 second video that we weren't shown all of, and then showed a different segment of that same video without showing the 24 seconds linked previously. 


Fenring

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Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
« Reply #128 on: November 03, 2020, 02:40:37 PM »
Would anybody here behave like either of those two drivers, in a normal situation? [...] Or seeing somebody merging into your lane, an instead of allowing the merge, tailgating the vehicle in front so closely that the other vehicle cannot merge?

Uh, unfortunately you will see this all the time in Montreal, Quebec. :(

NobleHunter

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Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
« Reply #129 on: November 03, 2020, 02:41:50 PM »
Uh, unfortunately you will see this all the time in Montreal, Quebec. :(

I don't know if it's confirmation bias but I sure noticed a lot of banged up fenders when I was in Montreal.

rightleft22

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Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
« Reply #130 on: November 03, 2020, 02:42:09 PM »
Quote
So I don't know.  I think the fix is in, and that there's enough vote manipulation that Trump can't win any state where the Dems have influence on the process, but I could be wrong.

I'm not betting against Trump having a second term

but I don't know. I think the fix is in, that their is enough voter manipulation and repression that Biden can't win any state where the Republicans have influence on the process, but I could be wrong

Two totally different experiences of reality. we each live in different worlds.

Well except you'd be hard pressed to describe a vector for the Republicans to engage in wide spread vote manipulation.  For the most part, Republicans are strong in lower population counties, where they just can find enough votes to add, even if they wanted to do so.  They are also largely support the rule of law, the constitution and generally are law and order types.  Politicians are not the same as the voters that support them, and there are unethical people on all sides, but casual acceptance of the ends justifying the means is not a Republican ideal.

But I congratulate you on once again thinking you made a point by flipping the names in a quote, even if you didn't engage in a second's worth of actual analysis to do it.

The point was that your argument is as good as mine neither of which proves anything other then that we live if different realities.
except in mine I can acknowledge that those on the left aren't always on the up and up, But I doubt very much you are capable of seeing anything wrong with the way the right views 'law and order'. Rules they set but won't play by them

The point is that had I made such a statement about a "fix" before you their is no way in hell that you would have accepted it as being valid so why the hell do you think your statement should convince me you have something to say? Other then that your a hypocrite
« Last Edit: November 03, 2020, 02:45:58 PM by rightleft22 »

Fenring

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Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
« Reply #131 on: November 03, 2020, 02:44:25 PM »
Um, well.. Yeah, getting pissed and using your vehicle to strike another vehicle will get you arrested for any number of reasons.

I get how striking someone else intentionally is obviously a big deal. But your characterization of "getting pissed" suggests a particular scenario and motive. Change the sentence to "getting scared and..." and suddenly you have someone doing something dangerous, putting someone else in a scared situation they are not supposed to be encountering, and an unfortunate reaction resulting. Doing a wrong think as a 'forced error' is something that I doubt could be prosecuted or even ticketed if you in no way created the bad situation. For instance if someone does something unexpected on a sidewalk, jumping right in your face or scaring you or something, and in a panic you throw a punch in self-defense, I do not believe the "nyah-nyah he hit me first" argument would hold any water.

That's all I meant when I said I wasn't sure if the black vehicle did anything wrong. It may have, but it may not have.

kidv

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Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
« Reply #132 on: November 03, 2020, 02:52:25 PM »
Now we can interpret.

The white SUV attempted to merge into the lane occupied by the black truck.  The white SUV entered the lane in a position ahead of the black truck, but approaching a position held by the black truck.  The white SUV maintained a position next to the black truck (both vehicles taking no further action and maintaining their same relative positions and speed) for at least 22 seconds.

Then, I can see the black truck drive into the left side of the white SUV, initiating contact multiple times, to force the white SUV out of the right lane. 

   N.B. if you intentionally drive into someone's car next to you, even if they are in your lane, you have committed an intentional act.  You have also likely committed a crime.  Having someone drive next to you (while slightly ahead of you), does not constitute a threat of imminent harm.  There's no evidence of the white SUV ever moving into the black truck, but just moving immediately next to it.  The black truck had no obligation to yield to the white SUV. It was entitled to maintain its position.  The black truck could have also yielded. The white SUV could have been cited for improper lane change, or for various other naming of that traffic violation.  Nothing seen would give the black truck the right to drive into the white SUV.

 It's the same situation as standing directly in front of some one.  Rude and invading their space.  If the person standing just continues to stand nose to nose with you, you can't punch them in the face.  You can maintain your space forever, or you can walk away.  Making contact (throwing the first punch) is an assault.  Standing next to someone, or driving next to someone is not an assault.


edit: there to their

TheDeamon

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Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
« Reply #133 on: November 03, 2020, 02:54:54 PM »
Reply to Fenring:  We're now all talking about the same video (or the same 5 seconds of that video).  There's only one source video which shows the collision.  I'm mystified to be faulted for sharing the link to that video.  It shows what is shows, and we can have a rational discussion about it.

----------------

How we got here:  "Liberal Hivemind"'s video referred to a 24 second video that we weren't shown all of, and then showed a different segment of that same video without showing the 24 seconds linked previously.

The 10 seconds of the video that Liberal Hivemind omitted wasn't meaningfully relevant material to the incident in any way I'm able to discern, it does suggest the white SUV was too far to the right in its lane of travel, but the white (trump) pickup truck blocks any visibility or what is going on between the black truck and the white (staffer) SUV.

You aren't "being attacked" for citing the Eric Cervini clip of the accident. You're being corrected that while he shared a clip of the video in question, he is not the source of the video, as I doubt he'd find the situation "hilarious" for one. For another, his video clip fails to provide the following 14+ additional seconds of video that Liberal Hivemind included in his own sharing of the video. The difference here is Eric Cervini is fine with you thinking he's the source(to a point), while Liberal Hivemind makes no such claim.

And the unanswered question you need to solve is if Eric is the source where did Liberal Hivemind get that extra footage from?

Logically that means there must be another version from the real source that has a more complete accounting of what went on there, as neither Eric Cervini not Liberal Hivemind provide a full and clear context for that video.

That and you seem to be very obstinate about not wanting to recognize that Liberal Hivemind does provide video footage that Cervini did not. While you're more than happy to point out the (irrelevant) material Liberal Hivemind dropped.

Fenring

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Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
« Reply #134 on: November 03, 2020, 03:01:12 PM »
Having someone drive next to you (while slightly ahead of you), does not constitute a threat of imminent harm.
[...]
It's the same situation as standing directly in front of some one.  Rude and invading their space.

No offense, but I've gotta say this this is one of the most obtuse arguments I've ever seen someone make here. Anyone with a lick of sense in a situation like that on the road would know they are a hair's breadth away from death every instant that the white SUV remains in that position. Along with your previous characterization of it being "peaceable" I have to say you are totally lacking perspective of what a situation like that really is.

I cannot be sure what the white SUV's motives are, nor is it clear they were merely trying to merge lanes. But I can be sure that the person driving the black vehicle would have been well within the realm of reason to feel like their life was in immediate danger.

DonaldD

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Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
« Reply #135 on: November 03, 2020, 03:02:45 PM »
Would anybody here behave like either of those two drivers, in a normal situation? [...] Or seeing somebody merging into your lane, an instead of allowing the merge, tailgating the vehicle in front so closely that the other vehicle cannot merge?

Uh, unfortunately you will see this all the time in Montreal, Quebec. :(
Fenring, do you drive that way in Montreal, Quebec?

Wayward Son

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Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
« Reply #136 on: November 03, 2020, 03:04:02 PM »
What I see in the Biden bus changing lanes to the right.  The white truck I heard was with the bus, and changed lanes with it, to stay behind the bus.  The black pickup was already in the right lane and moved to the shoulder when the white truck moved into his lane.  Then it looks like the black truck got mad, didn't want to surrender the lane, and so swiped the white truck out of his lane back into the center lane.

Bad driving all around. :(

TheDeamon

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Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
« Reply #137 on: November 03, 2020, 03:08:21 PM »
Now we can interpret.

And you'd be making interpretations based on evidence not available, even in the "Cervini clip" of the incident, by the time the two vehicles "enter frame" in a manner where you can see what's going on, they're already in physical contact with one another. We have zero video evidence at this time to indicate who hit who first. What we do have is video evidence of the White SUV operating their vehicle in a highly dangerous and illegal manner for tens of seconds prior to the incident happening however.

Police would likely cite both parties as being at fault if pressed to issue a citation, however the lion's share of fault would go to the Staffer.

snipping some
Quote
Then, I can see the black truck drive into the left side of the white SUV, initiating contact multiple times, to force the white SUV out of the right lane.

I see two vehicles already in physical contact when the camera brings them into frame. At that point, you're in a grey zone but most "reasonable persons" would likely conclude that the Black Truck was "reasonably" entitled to "assist" the other other driver back into their proper lane. Although they'd also likely agree that doing so was reckless behavior and that backing off would have been the more prudent course of action. 

Quote
N.B. if you intentionally drive into someone's car next to you, even if they are in your lane, you have committed an intentional act.  You have also likely committed a crime.  Having someone drive next to you (while slightly ahead of you), does not constitute a threat of imminent harm.  There's no evidence of the white SUV ever moving into the black truck, but just moving immediately next to it.  The black truck had no obligation to yield to the white SUV. It was entitled to maintain its position.

There is no evidence to support the idea that the Black truck initiated contact in this scenario, and plenty of circumstantial evidence to support the SUV in furtherance of a "pressure" move while playing "chicken" on the highway with the truck was in fact the one who initiated said contact. Once contact happened however....

Quote
The black truck could have also yielded. The white SUV could have been cited for improper lane change, or for various other naming of that traffic violation.  Nothing seen would give the black truck the right to drive into the white SUV.

Improper lane change, inattentive driving, reckless driving(which is nearly as bad as DUI) , and possibly public endangerment. Or course, the black truck could get a reckless driving and public endangerment charge as well.

I imagine Texas probably has some Road Rage laws that could be applied as well, and those I'd suspect would tend to be leveled against the SUV driver. If he really wanted in the right hand lane, he could have slowed down and pulled in behind the truck as well. ;)

DonaldD

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Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
« Reply #138 on: November 03, 2020, 03:09:09 PM »
I'm not 100% sure the black vehicle finally doing what it did is illegitimate, if you believe you are mortal danger and try to knock the other guy to make him stop attacking your position.
Is there evidence of the white van striking the black van?  It's really hard to characterize somebody as feeling they are in "mortal danger" when they are in a phalanx of a dozen (or dozens) of co-conspirators, refusing to back away from an erratic driver and staying inches away from that vehicle for half a minute all while tailgating another vehicle that you are consciously attempting to intimidate.

You're reallllly stretching there.

So no, there is almost no interpretation of the black driver's actions that are excusable, unless there is a clip of video showing the white van initiating contact, and the black truck's actions being simply a reaction to the force of that contact.

yossarian22c

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Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
« Reply #139 on: November 03, 2020, 03:14:38 PM »
Having someone drive next to you (while slightly ahead of you), does not constitute a threat of imminent harm.
[...]
It's the same situation as standing directly in front of some one.  Rude and invading their space.

No offense, but I've gotta say this this is one of the most obtuse arguments I've ever seen someone make here. Anyone with a lick of sense in a situation like that on the road would know they are a hair's breadth away from death every instant that the white SUV remains in that position. Along with your previous characterization of it being "peaceable" I have to say you are totally lacking perspective of what a situation like that really is.

I cannot be sure what the white SUV's motives are, nor is it clear they were merely trying to merge lanes. But I can be sure that the person driving the black vehicle would have been well within the realm of reason to feel like their life was in immediate danger.

Or the black pick up could have slowed down slightly and let the white SUV merge behind the bus. That's the appropriate response, not ramming another vehicle on the road. And lets be clear the Biden staffer was probably scared by being boxed in by all the Trump flag carrying trucks and was trying to get into a driving position where they couldn't be separated from the bus.

Grant

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Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
« Reply #140 on: November 03, 2020, 03:17:22 PM »
I'm so, so glad that I really don't give a *censored* who is breaking traffic laws somewhere.  I figure the cops can handle it, especially if it's on video. 

TheDeamon

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Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
« Reply #141 on: November 03, 2020, 03:23:44 PM »
I'm so, so glad that I really don't give a *censored* who is breaking traffic laws somewhere.  I figure the cops can handle it, especially if it's on video.

Police generally don't want to deal with issuing traffic citations related to accidents unless it involves death, injury, or property damages in excess of $1,000 (which has been trivially easy to do for nearly 20 years now) and even with the greater than $1,000 in damage don't expect them to want to become involved unless things turn physically violent.

As Cervini complained, the police were uninterested in doing anything(of course, he wasn't even a party to it), although he tries to attach a political motivation to their lack of interest. Nope, they just have other things they need to do, so until you demonstrate an actual threat to life, they're not going to do anything unless they're bored. Too much paper work, and legal overhead for them, so unless they actually saw it, they're not going to want to get involved.

rightleft22

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Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
« Reply #142 on: November 03, 2020, 03:41:59 PM »
Sad, good people on both sides

really this is the type of crap being debated. who's to blame so that 'our side' can feel its righteous indignation and 'prove' that their generalizations about the terrible horrible other side is correct.
Is this what we have to do to feel better about our selves. 

We all need to take a good long look at what were doing and the reality were creating.
Shame on all of us

Seriati

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Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
« Reply #143 on: November 03, 2020, 04:01:30 PM »
Would anybody here behave like either of those two drivers, in a normal situation? Trying to squeeze between two vehicles, while the vehicle you are closest to refuses to make room?  Or seeing somebody merging into your lane, an instead of allowing the merge, tailgating the vehicle in front so closely that the other vehicle cannot merge?

Spend more than an hour on I-95 around NY and you'll see all that and worse dozens of times.

Not sure though why this is being looked at in the abstract, isn't this supposed to be the Biden bus, tailgated by a Trumper in a black pickup and involving a Biden supporter in the white SUV?

Against that backdrop, the driver of the black pickup was very deserving of a ticket and maybe an arrest for reckless driving prior to the interplay with the white SUV.  However, it also seems pretty clear that the white SUV was trying to force the black truck away from the bus by initiating a potential wreck.  They probably viewed this as defending the bus against a reckless driver, but the solution to that is not to initiate what could be a fatal accident.

What's most surprising is that there aren't any police on the scene.  The bus has a radio.

Quote
Of course, pretending this was a normal situation is silly.  There were at least a dozen vehicles (probably more) where the drivers were coordinating their actions so as to intimidate other drivers on the road, surrounding the other vehicles and even slowing down immediately in front of them (at the least) far below what would be a safe speed on an expressway.

I agree, this is not the way to resolve political differences.  Of course, neither is shutting down speech at universities, staging counter protests for the purpose of beating and intimidating those trying to have a political rally, shouting down speakers, taking over stages, or really anyone of a thousand suppressions of speech that you didn't bat an eye at, including some that were more violent and risky than this.

kidv

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Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
« Reply #144 on: November 03, 2020, 04:04:47 PM »
I believe Twitter allows maximum posts of 50 second videos.  I would expect whoever took the original video posted about a 50 second video to twitter.  Dr. Servini tweeted a link to the first 24 seconds of the video (up to the collision).  Liberal Hivemind posted what looks like the last 24 seconds of the video (from the collision onward).  To dissect discussions, I am aware the moments before collisions are very legally relevant (and what happens after is completely legally irrelevant). I thus felt misinformed by liberal hivemind, as he discussed 24 seconds of missing video as a mode of deceit, and then liberal hivemind did not show me those 24 seconds which I know existed and wanted to see for context.

_____

From here it's an academic exercise in eyewitness testimony.  I believe if I were presenting this to a jury I feel like if I blew up the video of the collision to 8 by 8 foot size I would clearly show the black truck move into the white one.  I believe I'm seeing that there at the start.  If someone doesn't then agree then that's a camera view we don't have. A further dispositive issue I see as evidence is the black truck clearly driving into the white vehicle at the end, when the white vehicle is in the center lane and steering away to the left.  It may be left to the audience to determine if they see differently based on the identity of political affiliation of the participants.


All the principles I have stated are correct issues as a matter of law in determining fault, not as a description of politeness.


I believe deliberately demonstrative lane changes are a feature of all major metropolitan traffic.  People go where they need to go, and see if the other person yields.  As long as someone yields, traffic has successfully taken place. (it's all fun and games until someone crunches metal.)




rightleft22

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Re: Are Republicans going to be surprised when Biden/Harris win decisively?
« Reply #145 on: November 03, 2020, 04:43:36 PM »
is this the video
https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/01/politics/fbi-investigating-biden-bus-trump/index.html?

it looks like harassment to me. tickets for the tailgater and the one attempting to do a lane change.
Hope insurance refuses to cover any of it.