Author Topic: Election Results  (Read 26915 times)

yossarian22c

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Election Results
« on: October 23, 2020, 12:32:49 PM »
A few key states (Penn, and Wisconsin) don't allow for any pre counting and very little pre processing of mail in ballots. Trump almost certainty can't win without those states. The key states we're likely to have good information on election night are Florida and NC. They allow for both pre-processing and pre-counting ballots. If Biden wins both the election is over. If Biden wins 1 of the 2 he almost certainly wins. If Trump carries both then we're likely in for a wait of a couple days until the other swing states can put out some hard numbers.

If Biden outperforms in a couple other swing states that he is within margin of error in the polls, Ohio, Texas, Iowa, and Georgia then its a massive landslide win for Biden. But with the exception of Iowa I don't have much expectation of Biden winning in any of those states.

NC, Florida, and Texas have probably already seen about 1/2 their total number of ballots cast.

wmLambert

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #1 on: October 23, 2020, 02:24:33 PM »
Are there any websites that are posting the up to date results as they come in? Individual States have websites, but most want an account sign-in and to log in on November 3. There were national results posted in 2016, but I don't see any up yet.

TheDrake

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #2 on: October 23, 2020, 02:27:00 PM »
Just like on election day, no results are reported until the polls close. Probably the Secretaries of state have access to a running total. Precincts only report once all votes are counted.

yossarian22c

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #3 on: October 26, 2020, 05:02:03 PM »
Are there any websites that are posting the up to date results as they come in? Individual States have websites, but most want an account sign-in and to log in on November 3. There were national results posted in 2016, but I don't see any up yet.

Here's what I've found that just tracks number of votes cast.

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

TheDeamon

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #4 on: October 26, 2020, 06:43:30 PM »

yossarian22c

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #5 on: October 27, 2020, 09:39:17 AM »
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-joe-biden-toast-if-he-loses-pennsylvania/

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So here’s a question we can ask with our nifty scenario generator. Is Pennsylvania a must-win for Biden?

No, not quite. It is close to being a must-win for Trump, who has only a 2 percent chance of winning the Electoral College if he loses Pennsylvania. Biden, however, has a bit more margin for error. He’d have a 30 percent chance if he lost Pennsylvania

Biden should camp out in Penn for the next week like he's running for governor. He can win other ways, but Trump almost certainly can't.

yossarian22c

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #6 on: October 29, 2020, 09:41:23 AM »
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Looks like the race is going to come down to Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, and Pennsylvania. Biden could win huge if he picks off Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, or Texas. But despite his slim polling leads in Georgia I think he's a long shot there because of the shenanigans around the touch screen voting machines in that state. Iowa is polling at a virtual tie but they are having trouble staffing polling stations in their urban centers. The 538 weighted average polling in Ohio has Biden down 1.2% and down by almost 2% in Texas. Both of those states are long shots at this point.

Best information on election night is still likely to come from Florida and NC based on their rules for processing and counting early and mail in votes. If Trump takes both we can expect to wait for a few tense days while Pennsylvania becomes the center of attention like Florida was in 2000. If Biden takes both its a clean win. If Biden takes either its an almost certain win for him unless Trump picks off something unlikely in the upper midwest.

We haven't seen any big move in the polls so far and 78 million people have already voted. Very few people undecided in the polls. I doubt we'll see as a big swing from the polls that we saw in 2016. The Hunter Biden story isn't doing what the Comey letter did for Trump in 2016.

yossarian22c

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #7 on: October 30, 2020, 11:48:09 AM »
The total number of votes cast so far is 84,541,764. Which is probably a little over half the electorate. Several key swing states, Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina are seeing 80+% of their 2016 vote totals already cast. Texas has already exceeded their 2016 turnout.

Crossing my fingers this race doesn't end up as a replay of a combination of 2000 and 2016 with Trump getting trounced in the popular vote but the outcome of the election being determined by lawsuits coming out of Pennsylvania.

TheDeamon

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2020, 11:49:38 PM »
http://targetearly.targetsmart.com/

So according to the above site, some 87.7 million people have voted already. They're projecting 47.6% D to 41.8% R and 10.3% unaffiliated.

CBS News had a poll this past weekend suggesting 2/3rds of Trump voters intend to vote on Tuesday and have not voted yet, compared to 1/3rd for Biden.

By Targetsmart's modeling 36.6 million Republican voters have voted already. If that is only 1/3rd of Trump's base this cycle, there are potentially another 72 million Republican voters yet to vote... Which is insane when compared to 2016, or any other election is the last many decades.

Likewise, with a modeled 42 million Democrats already having voted, and another third yet to vote, there are 21 million Biden voters heading to polls on Tuesday. Which gives 108 million Trump voters to 63 million Biden voters(down 3 million from 2016 for Hillary who had 65.8 million votes--of course, uncounted is the "unaffilitaed" in the model from TargetSmart which is some 9 million additional votes which will likely split a number of ways including for Biden).

Which gives a total of 171 Million votes cast out of Pew's estimate of 233.6 Million eligible voters.

Of course, good old Gallup is predicting about normal levels of voter participation.

But I guess we'll see if Trump manages to get his 71 million voters to turn to vote in person on election day, but going from the above numbers, he might "only" need about 30 million to turn out.
« Last Edit: November 02, 2020, 11:55:03 PM by TheDeamon »

DonaldD

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #9 on: November 03, 2020, 12:24:59 AM »
About 97-99 million have already voted:

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11/02/us/trump-biden-election
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

Also, reporting from those states that track party membership of those having voted breaks it down to 45.1% Dem vs 30.5% Rep

yossarian22c

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2020, 12:34:46 AM »
http://targetearly.targetsmart.com/

So according to the above site, some 87.7 million people have voted already. They're projecting 47.6% D to 41.8% R and 10.3% unaffiliated.

CBS News had a poll this past weekend suggesting 2/3rds of Trump voters intend to vote on Tuesday and have not voted yet, compared to 1/3rd for Biden.

By Targetsmart's modeling 36.6 million Republican voters have voted already. If that is only 1/3rd of Trump's base this cycle, there are potentially another 72 million Republican voters yet to vote... Which is insane when compared to 2016, or any other election is the last many decades.

Likewise, with a modeled 42 million Democrats already having voted, and another third yet to vote, there are 21 million Biden voters heading to polls on Tuesday. Which gives 108 million Trump voters to 63 million Biden voters(down 3 million from 2016 for Hillary who had 65.8 million votes--of course, uncounted is the "unaffilitaed" in the model from TargetSmart which is some 9 million additional votes which will likely split a number of ways including for Biden).

Which gives a total of 171 Million votes cast out of Pew's estimate of 233.6 Million eligible voters.

Of course, good old Gallup is predicting about normal levels of voter participation.

But I guess we'll see if Trump manages to get his 71 million voters to turn to vote in person on election day, but going from the above numbers, he might "only" need about 30 million to turn out.

Apply a reality check. If your back of the envelope calculations show Trump winning the popular vote by 40 million votes you should assume something has gone wrong.

TheDeamon

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #11 on: November 03, 2020, 01:00:39 AM »
Apply a reality check. If your back of the envelope calculations show Trump winning the popular vote by 40 million votes you should assume something has gone wrong.

Well, a few things come into play there:

Voter participation in the US has been poor for decades, generations really. So simply getting people to show up and vote can produce that outcome.

And you can easily make the other numbers from polling reflect reality at the same time.

233.6 Million eligible voters. 55% support Biden, 45% support Trump, a ten point lead in Biden's favor nationally.
128.5 million potential Biden voters
105.1 million potential Trump voters.

50% turnout for Biden turns 128.5 Million into 64.25 million
100% turnout for Trump keeps 105.1 million Trump voters at 105.1 million. Trump wins by 40 million votes.

Of course, and the "napkin math" worked out to 108 million Trump voters, which would be a 2% error in the polls, indicating 47% Trump to 53% Biden in reality.. But as most biden voters in that scenario didn't bother to vote as per the typical American habit for half of America's eligible voters... Trump pulls off a landslide.

The other "Sanity check" option that can bring the range more into reality is that trump voters are lying to the pollsters, and part of those 2/3rds of Biden voters who've already voted... Actually are Trump voters. So that "2/3rds of Trump voters are yet to vote" number is wrong(but so is the Biden voter number).

Of course, as others like to keep declaring, "there is no evidence of 'shy trump voters'" so their lying to the pollsters is inconceivable.  8)

Wayward Son

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2020, 01:27:48 AM »
“It does not pay a prophet to be too specific.” —L. Sprague de Camp :)

TheDeamon

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #13 on: November 03, 2020, 01:43:23 AM »
“It does not pay a prophet to be too specific.” —L. Sprague de Camp :)

If I was going to be specific, I'd stick to my prediction from shortly after the last election.

Trump wins the EC again, but loses the Popular vote.

But it is kind of amusing to see some polling data out there that could be used to indirectly suggest a runaway popular vote win for Trump.

A 40 million vote margin in favor of anyone is unlikely in the extreme in US Politics. On paper, it evidently does appear to be possible, but I'd be shocked to see it happen.

I'd be amazed if Trump carries the popular vote. That said, I'd be less amazed to see Biden win his election bid.

So basically I'm hoping for a Trump EC win, as I think that's the best he can pull off. But a Biden EC and popular vote win looks ever so slightly more likely based on polling. So I'm 50/50 on that. A Trump popular vote win paired with the EC vote is the stuff for derisive laughter and rolling on the floor as I watch the heads of many pundits explode trying to figure out what happened, but that's likely to be pure fantasy. Even if there is some math to show it is possible, the polling indicates it isn't probable.

Grant

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #14 on: November 03, 2020, 10:08:49 AM »

Voter participation in the US has been poor for decades, generations really. So simply getting people to show up and vote can produce that outcome.


But would increased voter participation resulted in better elected officials?  Or does that not matter? 

Grant

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #15 on: November 03, 2020, 10:19:04 AM »
"And they gathered them together to the place called in Hebrew, Armageddon".
-Rev 16:16

"That's it, man.  Game over, man! Game over!  What the *censored* are we gonna do now?  What are we gonna do?"
-PFC William Hudson USCM

"None are so old as those who have outlived enthusiasm."
-Desiderius Erasmus

"Fasten your seatbelts; it's going to be a bumpy night"
-Margo Channing

Welcome to Ele-geddon!  The only good news is that we're going to be able to watch somebody flip the heck out tonight.  Get the popcorn ready and buckle up buttercups! 


TheDeamon

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #16 on: November 03, 2020, 10:36:14 AM »

Voter participation in the US has been poor for decades, generations really. So simply getting people to show up and vote can produce that outcome.


But would increased voter participation resulted in better elected officials?  Or does that not matter?

The result would likely be mixed as per usual. Republicans will likely just continue doing what they've been doing for the past 40+ years, in that scenario they won, so no need to adjust anything.

Democrats and their activists will just conclude they needed to do more to "motivate"(scare) their base into voting in sufficient numbers to counter the Republicans. So in that respect, they probably become more hyperbolic in their rhetoric, not less.

Of course, as per 2016 the major media outlets do their handful of weeks on contrition on "how did we miss this?" and "we have a bubble problem." Before returning to business as usual shortly thereafter.

wmLambert

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #17 on: November 03, 2020, 12:09:33 PM »
...Republicans will likely just continue doing what they've been doing for the past 40+ years, in that scenario they won, so no need to adjust anything.

That is one summation. However; this is also about brooming the RINO's out on their ears. Trump has aimed at the Swamp, which includes RINOs and Never-Trumpers.

msquared

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #18 on: November 03, 2020, 12:10:43 PM »
I claim that the Trump supporters are the RINO's, not me.  To me that will be the next big battle in the party.

Grant

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #19 on: November 03, 2020, 12:55:31 PM »
To me that will be the next big battle in the party.

I'm not sure how big a battle this is going to be.  If Trump loses, establishment Republicans are no longer going to have to cover for him anymore and will go back to doing what they always do.  Other than covering for Trump, people like Ryan and McConnell didn't really change.  They're still establishment Republicans and are the ones primarily responsible for any conservative policy successes during the Trump Administration. 

Come 2022, Trump may not even be an issue anymore.  The issue would be Biden and Harris and a Democratic party controlled congress.  The same goes for 2024. 

The real question is what happens to L'Orange if he loses.  Does he go gently into that good night?  I sincerely doubt it.  He may even try to run again in 2024 if he loses, though I doubt he'd have the same support.  Half his support now is just due to the fact that he won in 2016.  If he loses, he's a loser, and most Republicans, establishment or otherwise, won't want to touch him. 

The number of establishment Republican Never Trump voters is probably equal to the amount of hard core Trumpists in the Republican party, if you can get all these Never Trumpers who left the party to come back.  The core of the Republican party is still agnostic.  All they care about "will they beat the Democrats?".  So to me the real question is whether someone else takes up the mantle of anti-establishmentarian/Trumpist after Trump is gone.  I can see this happening easily.  In fact I can see many Republicans trying to frame themselves as Trump 2.0 if Trump loses. 

But the reality is that there are very few Republicans already in office that could be Trump.  He was exceptionally unique in 2016.  Somebody like Cruz could try to take over the Trump wing, but he's not Trump.  Most Never Trumpers may not like him, but would not become Never Cruzers.  Of course, there are some exceptions.  Nunes comes to mind.  Trump Jr.  Some other nut.  What is going to decide the matter is whether the establishment can designate a clear candidate before the primaries instead of splitting the establishment vote like in 2016.  If the establishment can rally around somebody like Haley, Baker, Sasse, or whomever else early, then Trump 2.0 probably won't take off. 

Seriati

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #20 on: November 03, 2020, 02:05:58 PM »
Well the lines at polls here locally are longest I've seen, despite it being a blue state and one that heavily sold early voting.  Not sure how to take that.

I was never one that called out RINOs, I always figured that the Republican party was big enough for a good bit of diversity on specific policies but I've changed my mind.  Being a never Trumper, when it's a choice between the most socialist and radical platform or a Trump platform that's achieved a huge amount of what the Republican party has professed to believe in was already suspect but actually endorsing Biden seals the deal for me. 

A big chunk of politicians on both sides are nothing but Establishment politicians, they are Republicans and Democrats in name only.  I get that Trump is a threat to them because he's restoring the government to what it was supposed to be, answerable to the people and without a ruling body of Supreme Justices making laws, but they are really short sighted if they think what the Dems are ushering in is going to end with the current ruling class in charge.  That's not how socialists operate when they get power.

Grant

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #21 on: November 03, 2020, 02:34:23 PM »
Being a never Trumper, when it's a choice between the most socialist and radical platform or a Trump platform that's achieved a huge amount of what the Republican party has professed to believe in was already suspect but actually endorsing Biden seals the deal for me.

I thought Sanders had the most socialist and radical platform.  I was that Obama?  Or was it Clinton?  I can't keep up.  Maybe it was AOC. 

It seems to me that most of the things that have been accomplished that the Republican party has professed to believe in was accomplished by evil establishment Republicans like McConnell and Ryan, not Trump.  In the meantime Trump is basically burning down the Republican party.  We had control over Congress for how long?  That's over.  Strong alliances in Europe?  That's over.  Free trade?  That's over. 

I mean, I don't know you that well Serati.  So it's kind of unfair.  But I'd sooner take the advice of someone like Admiral McRaven or General Mattis or Mitt Romney than you.  I don't know what your qualifications of character or political accomplishment are.  I know what their accomplishments are.  And I guess I'm just one of those guys who really believed that "it didn't matter if you win or lose, it's how you play the game".  I know Jeezus doesn't give me extra points for defeating the Romans.  So for me, character matters.  It used to matter for Republicans too, back in the Clinton years.  I guess it doesn't so much anymore.  But we're all hypocrites in some way. 


msquared

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #22 on: November 03, 2020, 02:38:25 PM »
It was a huge part of the Republican platform to blow up the deficit (this is before the virus relief bill). It was a part to give huge tax breaks to the wealthy?  It was a huge part to make Americans pay tariffs on goods from dozens of countries?  It was part of the platform to split up immigrant families, even illegal immigrants?

TheDeamon

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #23 on: November 03, 2020, 02:39:17 PM »
Being a never Trumper, when it's a choice between the most socialist and radical platform or a Trump platform that's achieved a huge amount of what the Republican party has professed to believe in was already suspect but actually endorsing Biden seals the deal for me.

I thought Sanders had the most socialist and radical platform.  I was that Obama?  Or was it Clinton?  I can't keep up.  Maybe it was AOC.

I imagine Seriati meant it in the context of Major Party Presidential Nominee on the general election ballot.

AOC can't run for PotUS just yet, still too young, Clinton ran as a corporate Democrat, and Obama was more nuanced in what he claimed he'd do. In any case with regards to Obama, not many Republicans endorsed him for PotUS.

Grant

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #24 on: November 03, 2020, 02:44:08 PM »

I imagine Seriati meant it in the context of Major Party Presidential Nominee on the general election ballot.


What this means, in effect, is that anyone to the left of the Republican nominee on the general election ballot is MOST SOCIALIST!  Kind of like Coca Cola is the MOST TOXIC when compared to water. 

TheDeamon

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #25 on: November 03, 2020, 03:13:00 PM »
I imagine Seriati meant it in the context of Major Party Presidential Nominee on the general election ballot.

What this means, in effect, is that anyone to the left of the Republican nominee on the general election ballot is MOST SOCIALIST!  Kind of like Coca Cola is the MOST TOXIC when compared to water.

There is a case to be made that the DNC of 2020 is more left wing than the Liberal Party of the United Kingdom.... And considering 20 years ago the Democrats were generally to the right of the Torries, that's not a small movement.

Grant

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #26 on: November 03, 2020, 03:25:31 PM »

There is a case to be made that the DNC of 2020 is more left wing than the Liberal Party of the United Kingdom..

Are you talking about the Liberal Democrats, or the Labour Party?  Because if you say that the DNC is more left wing than the Labour Party out loud three times, Jeremy Corbyn will rise up through the nearest commode and stalk you.

On the other hand, if say say that the Torries under William Hague were to the to the left of Al Gore, Manbearpig will eat you. 

TheDeamon

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #27 on: November 03, 2020, 03:40:27 PM »

There is a case to be made that the DNC of 2020 is more left wing than the Liberal Party of the United Kingdom..

Are you talking about the Liberal Democrats, or the Labour Party?  Because if you say that the DNC is more left wing than the Labour Party out loud three times, Jeremy Corbyn will rise up through the nearest commode and stalk you.

On the other hand, if say say that the Torries under William Hague were to the to the left of Al Gore, Manbearpig will eat you.

Take it up with the New York Times?

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/06/26/opinion/sunday/republican-platform-far-right.html

in 2008 they say the Dems were to the right of or the Labour in Britain, in 2012 they were to the left of Labor and remained to the left in 2016, but Labour has since overtaken the Dems, at least as of 2019, don't know about 2020 in the eyes of the NYT, as the article is from 2019.

But by that chart, today's Conservative Party of Britain is about on par with the DNC of 2000. While they're more left-wing than the DNC of 2004/2008

kidv

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #28 on: November 03, 2020, 04:09:38 PM »
Anyway. as far as I know the current combined vote totals show Trump leading 16-10 in New Hampshire. (Combined Dixville Notch and Millsfield)

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/02/politics/dixville-notch-2020-results/index.html

Grant

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #29 on: November 03, 2020, 04:22:57 PM »
Take it up with the New York Times?

You want me to say the NYT is often full of cac?  That's not hard.   

This manifesto project sounds like bs.  Liberals are constantly trying to say weird crap about where parties stand and coming up with all kinds of weird ways to measure it. 

Seriati

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #30 on: November 03, 2020, 04:45:52 PM »
Being a never Trumper, when it's a choice between the most socialist and radical platform or a Trump platform that's achieved a huge amount of what the Republican party has professed to believe in was already suspect but actually endorsing Biden seals the deal for me.

I thought Sanders had the most socialist and radical platform.  I was that Obama?  Or was it Clinton?  I can't keep up.  Maybe it was AOC.

Yes, and Biden is nothing more than a placeholder.  He's not setting policy, he's not acting as a brake, and whatever influence he had is going to disappear almost immediately.  Assuming he even gets to pick his cabinet, rather than having them handed to him, he's not long for the office as anything other than a prop that they wheel out from time to time for show.

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It seems to me that most of the things that have been accomplished that the Republican party has professed to believe in was accomplished by evil establishment Republicans like McConnell and Ryan, not Trump.

I like Ryan, I've always thought he was principled.  I would have voted for him if he hadn't dropped out before our primary.  McConnell is a pure political animal, not any different than Schumer just the opposite side of the coin.  But I'm curious what you think they accomplished?

It seemed to me that other than getting judges through approvals, Trump had to fight with them tooth and nail.  How many votes did they take to repeal Obamacare when it was safe because Obama would veto it?  Couldn't get it done AT ALL.  Tax reform, they almost derailed it.  With control of the House and the Senate they did nothing about the massive election scandal that Hilary and the deep state fobbed off on us in 2016.  I mean heck, the Dems took over the House in 2018 - thanks to Meuller's election manipulation through deliberately not releasing what was obvious to his team from the start - and since then you'd think Pelosi runs the entire government.  If she has that kind of power, what exactly were the "establishment Republicans" doing with in for the first 2 years?  Diddly squat.

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In the meantime Trump is basically burning down the Republican party.

Maybe, though I think its more the media that's doing that.   I mean Trump is a racist right?  Because he said that there were good Nazi's in Charlottesville and he won't call out white nationalist.  That's been debunked hundreds of times and its still showing up.  That's not what "Trump did" that's what the media is lying about for their own goals.

The only major divergence between what the Republican's have claimed to want (and what their voters actually want) and Trump is his stance on using tariffs in international trade. 

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We had control over Congress for how long?  That's over.  Strong alliances in Europe?  That's over.  Free trade?  That's over.

You make it sound like control over Congress is an end in itself.  We're not Democrats.  What's the point of "controlling" Congress and deliverying on none of your promises?  Democrats never make that mistake, they exploit every lever they have to maximize movement on policy goals.  Heck, when they lost Congress and the WhiteHouse, they still delivered on policy goals through administrative agencies that they overwhelmingly control and through national injunctions by activist district court judges that far exceeded the scope of the judicial authority.

Maybe, if you think it was Trump that cost "us" a majority, ask yourself what exactly the policies you think he screwed up are.

There's zero indication that Trump cost us alliances in Europe, the increasingly autocratic nature of the EU was already doing that behind a civil veneer.  Europe has been running a trade cold war against us for 20 years and the media won't acknowledge it. 

Free trade over?  Not unless you elect Biden and his team of socialists.  In fact, I don't even know how you can believe that one.  The world is not a free trade zone.  Every single one of our trading partners is an open or hidden trade manipulator.  For China there is not one part of their trade that is free, it's all tied into government control and support and manipulation, it's built on open theft of ideas and technology and it's all coordinated with and through their military and government goals.  Europe?  They are a hotbed of regulations that are manipulated to punish American companies, fine American companies and generally speaking extort rents from American companies to favor their own.  Trump is standing up against that, which is literally the only way to get to real free trade again.

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I mean, I don't know you that well Serati.  So it's kind of unfair.  But I'd sooner take the advice of someone like Admiral McRaven or General Mattis or Mitt Romney than you.  I don't know what your qualifications of character or political accomplishment are.  I know what their accomplishments are.  And I guess I'm just one of those guys who really believed that "it didn't matter if you win or lose, it's how you play the game".  I know Jeezus doesn't give me extra points for defeating the Romans.  So for me, character matters.  It used to matter for Republicans too, back in the Clinton years.  I guess it doesn't so much anymore.  But we're all hypocrites in some way.

And that's the biggest joke of all.  Voting against Trump is not voting for character.  Biden has little and the people behind him have less than Trump.  The idea that giving control of the WhiteHouse and Congress to the Democrats because Trump is a bad guy is insane. 

Four years in with Trump and I'm guessing you can't point to where his administration is actually causing you harm (even if you get expansive and think about harm caused to others more of that is media manipulation than reality).  Even where judges are violating the Constitution by encroaching on exclusive powers of the executive he hasn't ignored them, he's kept his team within the legal system.  He was investigated for 2 years by a team of partisan hacks for a crime invented by his political opponent that he knew he was innocent of and he not only didn't undermine that investigation he cooperated more fully with it than any President in history.  He was impeached, without any evidence tying him to wrong doing, for what appears to be an actual criminal conduct by Biden and his family that has been covered up.  Explain to me how burying that investigation, which should have been ongoing for at least 2 years if not longer, is legitimate?

Believing anyone tied to the establishment regardless of party is believing his political opponents.  RINOs are literally swamp creatures.  Put them in power all you want but they'll never deliver on the promises that get them elected, because they don't care about those issues as anything more than election fodder.  It's why Obama can be against gay marriage "to get elected" and then for gay marriage a few years later, and NO ONE believes he had a change of heart.  It's why a politician can tell people one day he opposes fracking and the next that he'd never ban it, or that she supports Israel and the next that she'd support a boycott.  Heck its why an entire Congress can get elected for years to "repeal Obamacare" and then not be able to muster the votes when they have a President that says he'll sign it.

Honestly, if you want to believe a talking mouth go right ahead, but don't expect things to get better when you listen to the very people that are self interested in not getting it done.

rightleft22

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #31 on: November 03, 2020, 04:53:40 PM »
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And that's the biggest joke of all.  Voting against Trump is not voting for character.  Biden has little and the people behind him have less than Trump.  The idea that giving control of the WhiteHouse and Congress to the Democrats because Trump is a bad guy is insane.

Your off your game???

Are you a mind reader knowing the reasons why someone chooses vote against Trump. Just because character doesn't matter to you does not mean it doesn't matter to others.
And if someone felt strongly that Trump was a bad person handing him control of Congress might just be a valid concern.

If you think Biden is a bad man would you want him to have control of Congress?  once again your hypocrisy is showing. 

Seriati

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #32 on: November 03, 2020, 05:00:06 PM »
It was a huge part of the Republican platform to blow up the deficit (this is before the virus relief bill).

This is a fair point.  Deficit reduction is a big Republican VOTER issue, it's never been proven to me to be a goal of any politician on either side.

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It was a part to give huge tax breaks to the wealthy?

No.  Republican platform to cut taxes on everyone, the wealthy pay more so they benefit more when everyone's taxes go down.  Don't believe the lies on this, the Trump tax cuts disproportionately benefitted the non-wealthy as tax cuts were passed down the line to benefit everyone no matter how little taxes they paid.   Heck the NYTs even had a column admitting that it was a middle class tax cut that the Democrats had lied about so convincingly that people didn't believe it.  Trump did make one mistake there, he should have never let the IRS put out the revised schedules to allow for withholding to change.  People are apparently stupid and they would have been more persuaded by a big refund than by an actual savings.

Meanwhile, the Democrats have promised to reinstate the SALT tax deductions that are literal gift to the 1%ers.  Haven't heard you complain about that actual tax cut for the wealthy.

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It was a huge part to make Americans pay tariffs on goods from dozens of countries?

It should have been.  This is one area that Trump is more correct than the establishment has ever been.  You can't have free trade without protecting it from bad actors.  The lack of sense in our trade policies has lead to massive loss of jobs and industry in this country.

Its funny, because I bet you understand why we have laws protecting us from abuses by companies with a monopoly.  Laws that prevent them from using that monopoly to take over other industries or to undermine competition by selling below costs to drive them out of business.  Yet flip into "international trade" and China can do all that and worse but so long as they don't say the word "tariff" no one blinks an eye.

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It was part of the platform to split up immigrant families, even illegal immigrants?

It's part of the platform to deport illegal aliens whether they came with families or not.  This is one of those areas where the Dems have set up a system of judicial rulings that make it impossible to actually enforce our actual laws.  Every deportation involves a ridiculous amount of unnecessary process.  Families got split up for the simple reason that a judge requires that children not stay in detention even with their family, even if the facilities are appropriate.  They did that because they have increased authority over minors - which avoids the need for there to be a law that establishes this policy - and believed that the only way to comply would be to release the whole family into the US and spend years trying to deport them.

Judicial interference has made our immigration policy one of the most ridiculous in the world.  One where a President doing his Constitutional duty to enforce the laws passed by Congress is practically called a criminal.

Where is the revised immigration law?  Who gave a every district court the authority to dictate international immigration policy (that is no where required in international or US law and contradicts US law and constitutional apportionment of authority) to the US government?

Seriati

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #33 on: November 03, 2020, 05:03:15 PM »
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And that's the biggest joke of all.  Voting against Trump is not voting for character.  Biden has little and the people behind him have less than Trump.  The idea that giving control of the WhiteHouse and Congress to the Democrats because Trump is a bad guy is insane.

Your off your game???

Are you a mind reader knowing the reasons why someone chooses vote against Trump. Just because character doesn't matter to you does not mean it doesn't matter to others.
And if someone felt strongly that Trump was a bad person handing him control of Congress might just be a valid concern.

If you think Biden is a bad man would you want him to have control of Congress?  once again your hypocrisy is showing.

I don't have to read minds.  The Democrats have supported open insurrection, have failed to call out political abuse and political violence, are openly endorsing political movements that have without fail led to suffering, violence and misery.  That's a terrible set of bad things.

But even on character, you have to delude yourself to ignore that virtually every Democratic politician calls people names, and not just Trump, though for Trump they've repaid everything he's said a thousand times over.  There's no character there at all to oppose him.  The only reason you can even pretend there is by selective reporting and selective consuming of news.

kidv

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #34 on: November 03, 2020, 05:04:50 PM »

  But I'd sooner take the advice of someone like Admiral McRaven or General Mattis or Mitt Romney than you. . . . I know what their accomplishments are.

Or John Kelly, John McCain, Robert Mueller, Ben Sasse, etc.  It's not just deranged liberals claiming Trump lacks honor or character to a "Never Trump" degree.

Seriati

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #35 on: November 03, 2020, 05:10:06 PM »
It's interesting that the Biden campaign has announced they could still win without winning Florida or Pennsylvania.  While undoubtedly true, you may have to wonder if that's reflective of an inner concern.

I think what's most interesting here is that if the election turn out is as high as it seems to be, the polls could be dramatically wrong in either direction.  And like the last four years it's literally all about Trump.

In a base turn out election, the more motivated base will flip the scales in its favor.  Here we have fanatical rabid pro-Trump supporters who are super excited to vote for him, and fanatical rabid Trump haters who are super excited to vote against him.  Who will turn out more? 

Biden remains an afterthought in the Trump For/Against election.

yossarian22c

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #36 on: November 03, 2020, 05:26:25 PM »
It's interesting that the Biden campaign has announced they could still win without winning Florida or Pennsylvania.  While undoubtedly true, you may have to wonder if that's reflective of an inner concern.

I think what's most interesting here is that if the election turn out is as high as it seems to be, the polls could be dramatically wrong in either direction.  And like the last four years it's literally all about Trump.

In a base turn out election, the more motivated base will flip the scales in its favor.  Here we have fanatical rabid pro-Trump supporters who are super excited to vote for him, and fanatical rabid Trump haters who are super excited to vote against him.  Who will turn out more? 

Biden remains an afterthought in the Trump For/Against election.

And somehow all these rabid pro-Trump people are afraid to tell a pollster they support Trump? Something doesn't compute there.

rightleft22

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #37 on: November 03, 2020, 05:37:45 PM »
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And that's the biggest joke of all.  Voting against Trump is not voting for character.  Biden has little and the people behind him have less than Trump.  The idea that giving control of the WhiteHouse and Congress to the Democrats because Trump is a bad guy is insane.

Your off your game???

Are you a mind reader knowing the reasons why someone chooses vote against Trump. Just because character doesn't matter to you does not mean it doesn't matter to others.
And if someone felt strongly that Trump was a bad person handing him control of Congress might just be a valid concern.

If you think Biden is a bad man would you want him to have control of Congress?  once again your hypocrisy is showing.

I don't have to read minds.  The Democrats have supported open insurrection, have failed to call out political abuse and political violence, are openly endorsing political movements that have without fail led to suffering, violence and misery.  That's a terrible set of bad things.

But even on character, you have to delude yourself to ignore that virtually every Democratic politician calls people names, and not just Trump, though for Trump they've repaid everything he's said a thousand times over.  There's no character there at all to oppose him.  The only reason you can even pretend there is by selective reporting and selective consuming of news.

I understand how you and those on your side of the fence might see things as you describe yet I know many on the other side of the fence who see thing in the exact opposite way
Who is correct?
The statements are meaningless over generalization in my opinion and unhelpful for dialog and getting us out of this partisan mess

I have heard many a politician call people names but no one does it better then Trump. that's my opinion. Just because Johnny is a *censored* doesn't excuses others from being a *censored*. Didn't we all learn that in kindergarten.
I'm hard pressed to identify a time Trump has lost at the name calling game so not sure if that's your selective consuming of 'news' or mine.  But again a meaningless unhelpful statement that can only end in hypocrisy.

Seriati

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #38 on: November 03, 2020, 05:57:48 PM »
And somehow all these rabid pro-Trump people are afraid to tell a pollster they support Trump? Something doesn't compute there.

If you say so, personally I hang up on the pollsters.  I live in a state where your voter registration is already publicly available, which makes it trivially easy to track you down to a home phone number.  I have no knowledge of who is really on the other end of the line asking.  I was talking to my wife today, and she says she routinely lies to pollsters - had no idea she did that or even why.  So anecdotally, you have 2 right there that have been on multiple polls as a hang up or a dishonest responder.

As to why they lie?  If you live in a mixed blue-red area there can be literal consequences to be open about it.  You can lose clients and friends, you can have your children targeted in school both by kids and by teachers.  People have been losing their heads over politics for a while now, and the media convincing everyone that the other side is pure evil isn't helping.

Wayward Son

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #39 on: November 03, 2020, 06:02:58 PM »
It's funny, Serati, that all these terrible things about the Democrats that you are complaining about are almost precisely what the Democrats have been complaining about Trump doing for all these years.  ;D  And, yet, you think these are reasons not to vote Democrat in this election.

Here's the bottom line, though:  everything that Trump has been able to do to help this country he has done.  The state of our country is as good as it's going to get.  Oh, sure, the economy will get better--at least until the next unexpected (for him) crisis comes along.  But do you think he can do anything about the protests and riots in cities?  He's already done what he can.  Uniting the country?  This is as good as it gets with him.  Integrity in the government?  What makes you think another one of his Ambassadors isn't going to tell a country they won't get Congressional aid if they don't investigate his opponent?  It's going to be four more years of scandals, incompetence, stupid tweets, name-calling, etc. etc. etc.

Biden might be worse, but I think it's worth a shot.  Biden is experienced, intelligent, and listens to experts like Fauci instead of threatening to fire them.  He knows how to run a country, instead of running it into the ground like Trump does with his businesses.  It probably won't be great, but it is bound to be better than the sh*t-show we've seen for the past term.

If nothing else, we won't have to hear about the latest stupid thing Trump did every single day anymore.  ;D

If you love the way things are, great, vote Trump.  But I want a change for the better.  And from everything I've seen, Biden can't possibly be much worse.  :P

Seriati

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #40 on: November 03, 2020, 06:43:20 PM »
It's funny, Serati, that all these terrible things about the Democrats that you are complaining about are almost precisely what the Democrats have been complaining about Trump doing for all these years.  ;D  And, yet, you think these are reasons not to vote Democrat in this election.

Are they though?  There's a lot of bluster about what Trump is "going to do" or how he's "destroying the Constitution" or "obviously a criminal" yet it's all panned out to what exactly?

Where has Trump trampled the Constitution, or even threatened it?  Has he promised to pack the courts?  Or add new states?  Or to make citizens out of millions of new voters and open the borders to any likely Democratic voter that can get here without any controls?  Was it Trump that's ordered lock-downs, or was it blue state governors?  Now that we know a lot more about the disease why are blue state governors and Biden still talking about new lockdowns that are unlikely to help?

Everything about the Russia investigation was flipped on its head.  You had an entire partisan apparatus that later appointed uncontrolled partisan operatives on the theory that - even though there is not ANY evidence of a crime - if they just look hard enough they'll find it.  Cause they "feel it in their bones" that he's dirty.  That's everything that we should all hate and more, and you still support it.  Yet, you can't even bother to find out the truth about what appears to be low hanging fruit in the Biden family.  Let me put it frankly, if this stuff was about the Trump's they'd be in jail, this is the literal evidence that has never existed that Meuller and his stooges abused the Constitution and the rights of American citizens to find, yet for the "good of the country(I mean the DNC -obviously the same thing)" we're going to pretend it's not real.  Obama knew Hunter was dirty.

End of day, all you really have that is factual is a poorly implemented border policy, on a border that's been violating our laws for decades.   What else?

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Here's the bottom line, though:  everything that Trump has been able to do to help this country he has done.  The state of our country is as good as it's going to get.  Oh, sure, the economy will get better--at least until the next unexpected (for him) crisis comes along.

Actually no.  If Trump is President, then it tips the balance on global free trade, if Biden is elected he'll go right back to appeasement and selling out American workers to the global elite.

Biden's tax changes are going to be designed to pay back his friends, not to help the country.  He's going to increase the costs of doing business everywhere, which helps his blue state friends pretend to be competitive inside the US (but doubles down on our global inability to compete by raising ALL American prices).  He's going to reward the 1%ers openly with the SALT tax deductions, and yes he's going to raise taxes - primarily on the middle class despite his promises  because he's going to build in so  many special deals and tax breaks for his political supporters that someone like Buffet's taxes will actually go down.

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But do you think he can do anything about the protests and riots in cities?  He's already done what he can.

He can, whether he will is a different question.  Fact is, the riots and protests are part of the Democratic political stategy to cause fear and intimidate voters into supporting them.  They'd be over tomorrow if Democrats enforced the laws that are on their own books as those laws are written.  Why do you prefer a system where the laws of the  people are applied for political benefits?

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Uniting the country?  This is as good as it gets with him.

Agreed, our country is not uniting anytime sooner.  The left wants to tear it down not unite it, and how exactly are we to come together on that message?  But it's not going to unite if Biden wins either.  He's not going to govern from the middle.

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Integrity in the government?

You mean like how the FBI has been running illegal operations against the President pretty much for four years?  How the misdeeds of the Obama administration were covered up and misclassified to prevent the true facts from being turned over to those with the power to do something about it?  Or how, that same government is filled with bureaucrats loyal to the DNC who never failed to leak information, including misinformation and down right fake stories to a willing press on anonymous basis if hurt the President?  Is that the "Intergrity" that Biden (who governed 8 years while that was being hard coded into the system) is bringing back?

The integrity that has staff at multiple executive agencies refusing to implement the policies of the President - who is our elected leader - but will have no problem doing so when it's Biden in charge?  Is that integrity when they deliberately misuse their DELEGATED authority to undermine the legitimate source of that authority?

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What makes you think another one of his Ambassadors isn't going to tell a country they won't get Congressional aid if they don't investigate his opponent?

The fact that none of them did that before.  Or maybe the fact that the entire foreign "professional" service are rabid deep staters.  Unlike you I read the transcripts of their testimony.  Every American should be concerned about their views on their own authority.  They are not the proper deciders of US policy, their roles exist to implement the directives of the political branch not to undermine them.

In any event, Biden's made clear that he is directly involved in this kind of corruption.  The actual evidence showed Trump was not.

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It's going to be four more years of scandals, incompetence, stupid tweets, name-calling, etc. etc. etc.

It may, but is that really more of a threat than four years of the media hiding and burying the wrong doing of President Biden and his administration, no matter how egregious, in the name of "team"?

Honestly, if hiding the truth about Biden is required to get him elected you have no basis for any moral high ground.  Trump has been vetted, revetted, and vetted again and it keeps coming up dry or fake.  The media seems to think it's vital that they not look AT ALL at Biden family deals that are corrupt on their face.

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Biden might be worse, but I think it's worth a shot.  Biden is experienced, intelligent, and listens to experts like Fauci instead of threatening to fire them.

Interesting observation.  Of course Trump also listens to experts but he's smart enough to hold them to account when their advice is shoddy.  Without Trump, we're still waiting for President Clinton's or President Biden's FDA to approve the COVID test in sufficient numbers to run tests.  Neither one of them would have used political capital to demand a better result the way Trump did, neither would have got so many companies working in so many ways.  We already know that from the results of Biden's own experience.

Plus, there's a reason we have doctors as advisors and not necessarily as leaders.  Expertise in disease transmission doesn't mean expertise in dealing with everything else connected to a solution.  Shutting down the economy may have more people than it saved (if you used the same analysis you guys advocated for counting Hurricane deaths in Puerto Rico, it almost certainly did).

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He knows how to run a country, instead of running it into the ground like Trump does with his businesses.

Biden's record running the economy is objectively worse than Trump's, not even a question despite the misinformation the media has pushed.  Biden has no success outside of government running anything, well unless you count the blatant graft that you refuse to look at in connection with Hunter.

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It probably won't be great, but it is bound to be better than the sh*t-show we've seen for the past term.

56% of people think they're better off than four years ago.  With Biden that numbers going to drop dramatically.  So no, it wont be better sh*t-show and all.

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If nothing else, we won't have to hear about the latest stupid thing Trump did every single day anymore.  ;D

Wait and see.  I don't think Trump is going to follow the model of his predecessors here.

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If you love the way things are, great, vote Trump.  But I want a change for the better.  And from everything I've seen, Biden can't possibly be much worse.  :P

You're not going to get a change for the better with Biden.  Best case you'll get rose colored glasses from the media, but not even Glade plug ins will make what happens smell nice.

Wayward Son

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #41 on: November 03, 2020, 07:00:14 PM »
Sorry, Seriati.  It's not just the media that is causing the stink in this Administration.

Go review the "Message from the President..." thread.  At least half of the posts quoting Trump are directly from the President himself via Twitter.  No filter.  No media twisting his words.  They are his own unadulterated stupidities.  No middleman required. :)

If you haven't figured out how bad this Presidency has been yet, there's no arguing with you.  You've made up your mind.  But so have I, and right now, my cat would make a better President than Donald J. Trump.  And I don't even like her that much.  ;D

Grant

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #42 on: November 04, 2020, 06:37:36 AM »
Damn, y'all got quiet.  I know not everybody went to bed like me at 8:30pm CT. 

Aris Katsaris

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #43 on: November 04, 2020, 07:27:09 AM »

Are they though?  There's a lot of bluster about what Trump is "going to do" or how he's "destroying the Constitution" or "obviously a criminal" yet it's all panned out to what exactly?

Where has Trump trampled the Constitution, or even threatened it?

A very easy example: When he said he'll try running again for a third term in 2024 after he gets reelected in 2020.

Can you show you have some self-respect Seriati and admit such an attempt would be blatantly unconstitutional? Or will you refuse to do so?

Trump wants to be a president for life like his love monkeys Putin, Erdogan, Orban, Kim and the like.

 
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Has he promised to pack the courts?  Or add new states?

Neither of these are unconstitutional, especially not the latter, which frankly ought be an imperative for any democratic citizen.

Trumpists don't want Puerto Rico to become a new state, because it's not white majority, not because it'd be supposesly unconstitutional (it wouldn't)

DJQuag

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #44 on: November 04, 2020, 08:07:40 AM »
Damn, y'all got quiet.  I know not everybody went to bed like me at 8:30pm CT.

I think it's we've all made our stances known and there's just not much to go on yet.

I will say having been raised in Arizona I'm feeling pretty proud of the old place right now.

Although, I think the only reason Biden took Arizona is because this election had a proposition up to legalize recreational cannabis use. I guarantee that brought out voters who otherwise wouldn't have bothered and, while they were there, *censored* Trump.

Saw people talking about how they think that contributed to Michigan in 16 as well.

DJQuag

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #45 on: November 04, 2020, 08:13:10 AM »
What's funny is that Puerto Rico could have been a state a very long time ago, it's just the Puerto Ricans keep politely declining. And God forbid DC be given representatives, it's not like their population is bigger then certain Republican states who get to have *their* two Senators.

The Court thing is morally dubious, I'll grant that. And yet, not at all unConstitutional and probably could rub cheeks with the idea that an open slot in February needs to wait until after the election but one in September needs to be filled RIGHT NOW IT'S THE RIGHT OF THE PRESIDENT.

Grant

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #46 on: November 04, 2020, 08:26:28 AM »
Damn, y'all got quiet.  I know not everybody went to bed like me at 8:30pm CT.

I think it's we've all made our stances known and there's just not much to go on yet.


I think the major story here is that Trump has overperformed the polls.  It's not going to be a Biden blowout.  So sorry, Greg.   :'(   It's going to be a squeaker either way.  Honestly, right now, it looks like Trump is going to win, which is a yuge story for Le Chattegrabber and his Grabbettes.  Nate Silver is still awake.  He probably looks like Bill the Cat at this point. 

DJQuag

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #47 on: November 04, 2020, 08:35:08 AM »
Damn, y'all got quiet.  I know not everybody went to bed like me at 8:30pm CT.

I think it's we've all made our stances known and there's just not much to go on yet.


I think the major story here is that Trump has overperformed the polls.  It's not going to be a Biden blowout.  So sorry, Greg.   :'(   It's going to be a squeaker either way.  Honestly, right now, it looks like Trump is going to win, which is a yuge story for Le Chattegrabber and his Grabbettes.  Nate Silver is still awake.  He probably looks like Bill the Cat at this point.

You really think that? Biden took AZ. It's not Cali or Texas or anything but that's eleven votes most all Trumptistas thought were solidly in their pocket. You can tell from their reactions when their own pocket media were the first to declare AZ for Biden. They were *not* happy.

No one tends to give a *censored* about Western States that don't start with C or T but these eleven votes actually dramatically shrink Trump's way to victory.

Grant

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #48 on: November 04, 2020, 08:45:50 AM »


You really think that? Biden took AZ. It's not Cali or Texas or anything but that's eleven votes most all Trumptistas thought were solidly in their pocket. You can tell from their reactions when their own pocket media were the first to declare AZ for Biden. They were *not* happy.

No one tends to give a *censored* about Western States that don't start with C or T but these eleven votes actually dramatically shrink Trump's way to victory.

They're still counting in Arizona.  I wouldn't be surprised if Biden wins there, but he was predicted to.  More importantly, Trump won Florida, which was kind of a tossup but was still supposed to go Biden.  Instead, Trump is winning there by 3 and a half points.  The results are shifting in his favor.  He's winning in Michigan, which Biden was supposed to win by around 8 points.  He's got a yuge lead in Pennslyvania, which Biden was supposed to win by 5 points. 

Trump is currently winning.  Arizona can't make up for losing Pennsylvania and Michigan.  Right now Democrats and Biden voters need to be making their peace with gawd.  I feel for you atheists.
 There is always the Flying Spaghetti Monster.  Arizona might be a good sign, but it's not over there either.  Dig in, sweethearts. 

DJQuag

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Re: Election Results
« Reply #49 on: November 04, 2020, 08:51:44 AM »
I'm just trying to have a polite conversation, and yet you keep condescending to me. And yet you're the one complaining about people being...atheists? Believing in God? Friendly advice, your message there is a bit confused. If you were annoyed with both of those categories I could probably give you a thumbs up.

I'm not quite sure why you think he's destined to win in Penn  or Michigan.