Biden's large lead has been remarkably stable, except for recent growth to about 10%. Looks like almost 350 electoral college votes for Biden/Harris, less than 200 for Trump/Pence. Unlike 2016, Biden's lead is above 50% nationally, and of the small number of undecided voters, most of them are likely to go for the challenger over the incumbent.
Sorry, been completely swamped at work pretty much since March. It's certainly possible that Biden wins big, though I tend to think the actual vote is closer than the polling indicates. I do think we've already had significant and material voter fraud in favor of Biden, but the absolute rule of voter fraud is it's difficult to catch and no matter how egregious is never going to be counted by anyone as resulting in a stolen election if its pro-democrat.
I predict there will be considerable attempts to make excuses after the loss. Like the three million imaginary illegal voters that Trump used to explain his loss of the popular vote even as he won the electoral college in 2016.
No, the only reason for this loss, assuming it turns out to be a loss, is the overwhelming blanket of false media coverage for four years. Non-stop propaganda is why a Republican President that's had a very significant level of success, where 56% of people believe their lives are better than they were four years ago (according to a recent poll), where real family income increased significantly more in four years than in the entire eight years of the prior administration, where the economy was record pace before COVID and recovering at record pace even with COVID is somehow an underdog in an election with a candidate that everyone knows is either senile or suffering from a continuous stream of micro-strokes. Who won't serve out his term and is a trojan horse for the worst set of political goals put forward by a major party in at least 50 years.
So many people "hate" Trump and can barely tell you why without reverting to sound bites and assertions without evidence. Okay, that's their right, but it's beyond stupid as a basis for a vote. Too many think they are voting for prom king and just need to pick the person that they like better, not enough are actually thinking about the real consequences of the policies that will entail.
So I'd like some predictions from those of you who are going to be trying out excuses in mid-to-late November. When you make accusations about cheating, do you predict that there will be an equal amount of cheating in states with Republican Governors and Secretaries of State, or will your theory of cheating be based on only states where Democrats are in charge? Will you predict that the results will favor Biden more than the pre-election polling in states (like California) where every voter is sent a ballot?
For Democrats cheating is endemic and something to be covered up and protected, for Republicans its an aberration and something to be exposed. So yes, the party that has favored the Ends justifying the means for decades will cheat more now than the other one (you can find people saying they are cheating on any college kids SnapChat or Instagram by the way).
CA will have an even bigger number of votes for Biden than Hillary, so will all the Blue strongholds that are dominated by angry white liberals. Karens love Biden, as do white virtue signalers, and they are big populations in some of those states. I think Trump improves in black and hispanic communities, but I could be wrong, but not by enough as should be expected and it may show more by a lack of voting than a switch of votes.
My prediction is that the votes for Biden and Trump will be similar to the polling results, with a slight Biden tilt as the late deciders go against the incumbent.
If local voting results are similar to polling results, that is to me evidence that the results were rigged. The overall direction could align with the polls but there are too many issues with polling for it to track local results closely (absent manipulation). Too much tracking makes me think that the results were pushed to match the pro-Biden polls (be fascinated if a real statistical analysis is done on this point - we'll never see it though).
Any event, my prediction from when I first read this thread was Biden probably wins, but not clear if its because of actual votes or fraudulent votes (but the media will never run that story). My prediction now is that it's less clear, I really think there are 3 possibilities and I can't distinguish between them:
1. Biden in a landslide, if the Trump hate is strong enough this is possible. Be honest no one cares about Biden, no one is excited to vote for him, but the hate-thusiam may be strong enough to cause this.
2. Biden in a squeaker. Comes down to one or two states and most likely months of law suits, with the media full on press about how Trump's trying to steal the election, no matter how many fraud or other issues come up against the Dems they get non-reported or dismissed.
3. Trump in a decisive electoral college win. While the polling says no, the crowd sizes and the overwhelming Trump sign advantage outside of Democratic strongholds, the presence of the silent Trump voters, and the inroads Trump made with traditional Dem voters make this a possibility. I suspect that this becomes more likely the larger the in person voting becomes. Media refuses to concede and runs hour after hour of stolen election coverage, blows up any disparity or irregularity into a national scandal (as opposed to burying them in scenario 2).
So I don't know. I think the fix is in, and that there's enough vote manipulation that Trump can't win any state where the Dems have influence on the process, but I could be wrong.
